Silver Weekly – 2014 August WC25 (moved)

August
25th 17.25 17.39 17.25 19.20 19.24 20.11 20.22 21.19 22.05
18th 17.26 17.47 17.47 19.18 19.36 20.00 20.38 21.27 22.05
11th 17.28 17.54 17.26 19.17 19.48 19.88 20.53 21.35 22.04
4th 17.29 17.62 17.81 19.15 19.58 19.77 20.67 21.43 22.04
  • Bullish Confirmation - M 25.12/ W 22.18 / D 21.63  
  • Bearish Confirmation - M 18.185 / W 18.72 (twice elected)/ D 18.615
  • Current Wave Count - d-1 (typo last week!) of D-3 of W-2 of M-4 of Q4

WC 25th  The low of c-3 is still not in. Prices should first retest 19.48 before making c-3 by next week below the Q123ML around 18.75. Once c-3 is in we should get a bounce to around 19.25 retesting an failing at Q123ML, which will be the retest failure confirming prices will challenge the current low of 18.18.

PMSiWwc25aug14

 

WC18 August Last weeks projected downside went nicely to que, dropping through the 19.88 support level and making a low a stone throw from the 1948 support! The high did not make the d channel MLU, a further indication of a subwave pivot. The last bullish potential of the possible d012ML SP was broken so there is no longer a bullish scenario for silver on the W fractal wave scale!. More important is this week's high and close, as last week closed below the MF W0-1-2 ML, which can go 2 ways - a big drop as prices work down to the MLL or a retest.

PMSiWwc18082014

As projected prices are working their way to the D0-1-2ML (dashed bold blue) where they are expected to continue and test the bearish confirmation, so a retest of support around the high $18 is projected for September. Also note that this is the 3rd approach to the M-1-2-3MLL and if prices break through a 4th retest failure is highly probable and we should start to see analysts falling out of the trees as it gets further shaken after all their bullish commentary which over the last 2 weeks has started to go a little quiet as their scenario becomes less and less likely!, but that is a way away yet.

Last week I talked about the importance of working in multiple wave fractals to fill in the detail so this week I am adding the hourly projections.

PMSiHwc18082014

These show that within wave d-1 we are in m-5 of c-3. You can see prices have worked their way from the d MLU, but have yet to bottom on the MLL. Within MFM0-1-2 they are on the ML so it is possible that we are at pivot c-3, however confirmation is needed. However prices as discussed in the Weekly chart above are expected to continue the downtrend, making either the D0-1-2ML or the dMLL, before reverting to the D0-1-2MLU to make pivot d-2.

I am expecting prices to make a low to complete c-3, before working their way back to the cMLU, to make c-4 which should be in before the end of the month.

 

WC 11 August. Back in Kuwait for weeks work so trying to update what I can! Above weekly support and resistance for August. Prices have moved much as projected within the expected monthly range with a slightly lower low so far than the first level of monthly support of 19.87. Having bounced indicates a smaller fractal wave scale bottom was made. Last weeks low was 19.76, on the first level of support, so the bottom is most likely 1 fractal wave scale smaller than the previous high, hence d-1. This weeks open is weak and the low is below the first level of support so that indicates that d-1 is not yet in and last weeks low is actually c-3 so we should have a small bounce followed by new lows this week. Alternatively if d-1 is in then prices may go to the first resistance level of 20.53 to make d-2 before heading lower again. To answer this you must analyse on a smaller fractal scale just to reiterate the importance of how fractal waves work, the complexity of the charts and the methodology!

SilverWC110814

A break of last weeks low means d-1 is not complete, and the open and low below the possible W012 bullish fork MLL indicate weakness, hence from only this chart it would appear new lows are more probable than new highs which indicate d-1 is not yet complete. Within the d channel the high has bounced off the ML so continued downside is expected.

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