In my previous update on silver I expected a drop! It went up. Why? In my previous analysis I did not accept failure of the wave count rules, however since I have discovered how fractal waves work I now have a method of checking wave violation rules which in this case as with gold have been highlighted. This came to my notice whilst trialing the system on 2 minute ticks - a pattern emerged - news driven and panic buying or selling, may violate the wave count if they correct in the next fractal wave scale so below is the revised count. This is why I like to keep my stuff archived for public scrutiny! So we can check and not allude ourselves and allow us to make unemotional trading decisions based on rules and not gossip or marriage to a view, or worse pride when a trade goes against us!

So big picture now is;

And detail of the breaking below $30 is shown below! Watch for options expiry day - they will hold it over so that puts don't get paid out - that is the sort of wave violation that is corrected in the next fractal scale!

So as I said in the previous big picture it is still set to make new lows - however timing is now early next year! And the final low is due a few years down the road as we are only about half way through this correction!


5 Responses to Silver

  1. Hermann says:

    Many thanks for your quick answer.
    I see your M-4 count.
    Respectfully i must reject that count. Looking at the counts before, i see you had a rule break of your Rule Nr.1 by 0,58 % on a weekly basis.
    In most theories this would be nothing to worry about. But your theory is so fundamental great at its core that 0,58% on a weekly basis is a huge number in my eyes.
    Most of all the simple rules of a great theory should be the strongest. Showing the laws of god that are simple. And your Theory is surely great!
    ,,Be like the children and you will see heavenly kingdom.”

    1. First obvious it can not be a failure like the high in gold in summer with the retest. That was so close, that in future it did not break the high but in xau or the other way.
    Here 0,58% is by far not a measurement failure of the instrument.
    2. It could be a spike low, that qualifies as noise. I am quite uncomfortable with such theory of noise but even in this case, it was no spike low. Looking at the chart the low falls as a -5 of a -5 wave with no wave failure, taking a whole day to come down. That is no spike compared with the flash crash of GBP in 5 min after trading hours for example that counted clearly as a wave.
    3. The forks just hits ML for M-1, M-2, M-3 of my counting. So even not knowing so much on the right scaling of the waves, that seems pretty normal.
    4. The spike wave just tries to catch the ML at time and fails to do that so a 3 wave pattern occurs.
    5. The bigger picture shows my wave M-3 and M-4 as failed waves with a 3 wave pattern. After that we often see a big move or a long move to establish the 5 wave pattern again. So here too, the fork to M-5 does not hit target in neither count.
    6. The big M forks creates echo pivots hitting pivots of smaller fractal.
    7. W -1 of M-5 has its pivot inside of M-3 near the low, that is often seen before big moves down with getting higher fractal scale.
    8. Looking at the waves as being water, i see waves coronas closing in to form a longer wave -5 with big scale. You very often see this at the beach.

    Even if all of that should be wrong, and the above right, i see your lower line of yearly support quite close to the price. The weak W-5 of M-5 should not be able to come through that more than a spike low if even that. I can not give a fork in your chart, cause you have longer data with yearly pivots to see the matching of M-5 with the yearly support, but i would suspect that it should hit early in 2017. Perhaps in that magic February. That is only 2 months from here.
    Given the fact, that this is a Quarterly pivot Q+4 we should see a mighty rally after that. So it might also pay out to buy simply in portions over time to get a mixed bag of price.

  2. Hermann says:

    Further and a bottom occurs.

  3. Hermann says:

    As i have a block in gold now, i did a wave chart on silver.

    It absolutely matches with Marcs yearly on 12.01.2016, and i looked at it after i counted the waves.
    The only diffrence is the wave was simply completed at that time, i guess.

    Marc look at your own chart. ML Q123 is a good hit. Now with distance to WEC 2015 and seeing the charts unreavel, we can see another perfect hit for a W+1. So in silver that downmove should be done.
    Heared others speaking that 16 holds other than gold that broke support. For me that means nothing here since pivots are others, but as the trader seem to believe this it should be fine for us too.

    So silver has a strong psychology in the moment.

    If i counted right, silver should even just made the W+2 complete.
    But please someone might do a recount here, since silver is not always that easy as it was on the Q wave down, since the 2 main wave prolongings came as wave -1 inside the bigger wave pivotal support, so misinterpretation here was just not possible.

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