Crude Oil

In the big picture for Brent we all know it is in a downtrend but where might that end?

Brendt W big picture

Below we can see all the ML's and currently the high was made one the d-3-4-5ML where prices again reached this week.

A breakthrough will mean prices move to the next ML, the orange Q, however that will only be a temporary pause around $50, before moving to the W-1-2-3ML to give a high no later that August around $60 before moving onto new lows.

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Looking at the detailed wave structure of the current uptrend it is highly probable the high is in place. However prices have not confirmed by breaking the lower channel on the deci fractal. Below you can see the count and you can see prices are pressing the D channel MLU (purple dashed), as well as the D-1-2-3ML. Prices are highly likely to turn here.

Brendt Crude D detail 13 May

 

16 Responses to Crude Oil

  1. Hermann says:

    Oil seems to have a long downturn in front now.
    I can not believe that this is all about green energy and cheaper oil production. This smells like a strong recession in front of us all.
    Feel free to comment.

    • Marc says:

      I will have a look in a few days but looks like Merkel gets in things start to fall apart …. Next year exciting me thinks 🙂 Thanks for hanging in here!

    • Hank says:

      Hi Hermann,
      Good question. Somehow I don’t think Price has a too big correspondence right now with the economy. I’ve been waiting for new lows since the end of 2016. “News” that opec cuts or whatever should be received with a few days of Price excitement but then continuation of the trend. I was surprised at the high Prices of Jan./Feb. (the Chart told me it should be falling!) and thought I was caught out wrong again in mid April. But no, oil still wants to go lower. Even though Prices are “low”, there are way too many rigs about. There is too much enthusiasm for future higher Prices. Sentiment is much, much too good to Keep Prices “up here”.
      The oil patch Needs a shake up, Needs to loose some self confidence — and Needs to be cutting down on rigs and the like. I think it’s definitely a Sentiment Thing. Prices will go up once Producers (and/or the markets) go up.
      (Sorry about the capital letters, my German spell-check does that automatically. ..)
      Cheers, Dominic
      @Marc: I’m really looking Forward to your take.

  2. Michael says:

    Hi everyone … I’m continuing with an exercise in a very simplistic manner until I fully understand the methodology. I’m hoping that this is useful to others, but I’m sure there are some/alot of you who are well passed this level of understanding.

    I am attaching 2 charts: 15min and 4hr. Question – Are these 2 scales still appropriate and being used by you?

    15min – I believe the count as completed the 5th wave at about 49.50. Question – Is this labeling correct? Question – The confirmation of the 5th wave is obtained from looking at one scale lower than the 15min? So that would be the 5min scale? What specifically am I looking for on the 5min scale that confirms the 5th wave on the 15min?

    4hr – Is the labeling correct? Price should pull back to about $45 (lower fork), but can pullback as far as about $35 as long as it does not move lover than wave 2? What fork should be drawn to anticipate this wave 4 pullback?

    • Marc says:

      Thanks @mlurski.
      Sorry I dont have WTI, but use Brent – they fundamentally follow same.

      If you look at Brent your first fork on brent actually start with a lower low than what you have labelled 0 (on my chart your 0 is my 2) – often when this happens pivot 5 will be at / near ML. so what you have labelled as 3 is my 5.

      Intervals – essentially they are a further aid to filtering noise so you are somewhat subjectively looking for 5 waves and the larger the fractal the less noise you have. So if you have eg. on the weekly charts above on the MLU (top gold line) you clearly have subwaves (lower highs and higher lows) and they just get labeled Q / M / W / D/ d in this case. There is no need to go into smaller fractals as this is pretty obvious and hence the noise is filtered out here on the weekly interval.

      So the interval is largely used to filter noise from the big picture to start to build the detail, as opposed to the fractal wave scale. The fractal wave scales I think we talked about last year on OEW where they were trying to relate my fractals wave scales to Tony’s EW count – it cant be done as OEW is not based on wave theory but is just a subjective counting method, and really the fractal is irrelevant even if it is out either up or down so long as you know what fractal you are trading. So if it is not clear then you look on a smaller interval to see if you can see a 5 wave pattern. The intervals I use are Y =4*Q=3* M=4*W=5*D=8*H. The 4 hour I only use if I cant get a good idea of wave structure on the D or hourly (h usually due to noise).

      From what you have after 2: draw forks from the last 3 pivots on same fractal (so one fractal smaller than you have numbered – where you have shown arrows)
      First fork pivot 0 (= what you have labelled 2) and your next 2 arrows (pivot 1 and 2). That forks ML becomes the target for one fractal smaller pivot 1, with prices reverting to the MLL in an ideal wave.
      Second fork – pivot 1, 2 and 3 (arrows 1,2 and 3) – the ML is the ideal wave target with the cross of the 02MLL intersection as the ideal time target.
      Assuming pivot 0 is correct the bigger fractal fork you want to draw is from what you have labelled as 1, 2 and 3 and the ML of the fork is where you can expect pivot 4, which is pretty close where you have pivot 4 shown…..
      Another way is to draw trend line from pivot 1 to 3, and draw a parallel line from pivot 2, or draw a trendline from pivot 1 to 2 and create a parallel from pivot 3, the last 2 ways described give you ideal wave timing rather than just the ML which only gives you a price line.
      Whether what you have labeled as 3 even if it is pivot 5, the next bigger turning point if the uptrend continues or we are in a downtrend is the same – prices should reach the ML over 80% of the time. This is where you follow the subwaves on a smaller fractal as if you have an obvious 5 wave pattern by the time prices reach the ML it is highly likely prices will change trend at the ML.

      Below I have bolded the d345 fork ML (green), and the c345ML (sky blue) and where the 2 intersect is the ideal wave target, and this also falls on your 02 MLL. So we can expect prices to move down to test 45 towards month end.

      Hope this makes sense!

  3. Gleb says:

    Hello everyone, where would you put your stop if you have opened short last Friday ? I have around 48.31 on both wti and brent . My position is 100 contracts. Any views are very welcome to both side of the fence. Many thanks for your valued opinions.

  4. ssank says:

    Marc, I must be missing something basic here, but I don’t understand the pivot numbering.
    1) The 2008 high is a gold (quarterly) pivot, and the subsequent 2008 low is the MLL of a gold fork, so it must be a quarterly pivot too. The next high in 2012 is orange (monthly) -2, so where is M-1? It can’t be the 2008 low since that is a quarterly pivot and so must be M0.
    2) From the purple -2 pivot there are 5 deci waves down culminating in another purple pivot so the latter pivot should be D-3. But D-3 is also the MLL of a red (weekly) fork which seems to be what is called in the text W-1-2-3. How can this be? Are the pivot colours one fractal out?

    • Marc says:

      @giri – brilliant! this is what we need as I am the weakest link – the more of us that check and the results should improve for all!!!

      1 – Correct the fork is the Q channel fork and hence should be short dashes!!! M-1 being the low back from M-2.
      2 – D-3 is the recent low – as D-4 is not confirmed I have not yet shown it. The reason for a weekly fork drawn to the same pivot is when you get drawn out corrections it is extremely difficult to pair the pivots as we have seen in gold less than 30 dollars difference between 3 fractals, so essentially it gives an upper limit if I have the wrong pivot labels – so here if I am wrong then prices should run to 60 before turning.

  5. Marc says:

    Thanks @mlurski,
    We can see nice wave formation 1 through 4 with an extension in wave 3.
    Yes we can expect another high as you point out above or equal to pivot 3.
    This remains valid unless we get low below pivot 4.

    The constructive wave extreme is double the amplitude so if you duplicate the fork and slide the upper parallel over the current lower parallel if prices fail to make a new high by then in all probabilities there is a wave failure. So that in essence give you a time extreme target.

    • Michael says:

      Ok, so I understand what you have confirmed. What I’m not sure yo are saying is in the 2nd paragraph.

      In the attached chart, I did not move the original fork, bud added prongs (lettered them). Is this the same concept you refer to in your 2nd paragraph? Which of the prongs (letter) would you expect the +5 wave to reach?

      Thanks

      • Marc says:

        what ever your measurement is from ML to MLL, double that so depending on the program setting if ML to parallel is 100% – set the CWE to 200%. see wave superposition
        http://mapwaveanalysis.com/mapwaves/trading-room/advanced-theory/measuring-the-wave-1-fork-basics/

        • Michael says:

          OK, so got rid of the 2 extra prongs. This the attached chart correct?

          Now … I don’t know what you are trying to say in your paragraph below …

          The constructive wave extreme is double the amplitude so if you duplicate the fork and slide the upper parallel over the current lower parallel if prices fail to make a new high by then in all probabilities there is a wave failure. So that in essence give you a time extreme target.

          I understand the the CWE, but not able to understand what you are saying? Maybe there is a typo or a couple words missing?

          – The constructive wave extreme is double the amplitude – understood
          – if you duplicate the fork and slide the upper parallel over the current lower parallel – understood
          – if prices fail to make a new high by then in all probabilities there is a wave failure. So that in essence give you a time extreme target. – DON’T UNDERSTAND

          Can you please refer to the lettered prongs (until I understand what you are saying)

          Thank you 🙂

  6. Michael says:

    Hi everyone … I had sent this chart to Marc and he asked me to post. My personal need is to start looking at very simple charts with only a couple forks and labels so that I can understand the basic MWA method.

    I sent this chart to Marc yesterday at the time that price at hit the lower fork at +4 (sorry, I’m far from comprehending the fractals). I thought the count suggested a move higher above +3 ($47) and that was my question to Marc.

    Since then, price has broken below the fork (what does that imply?). Is the count still valid as long as price stays above +4 ($45.50)?

    Hopefully, an exercise this simple will be beneficial to others 🙂

    Have a nice weekend, all.

    Michael

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