Gold September 2016

Quickly looking at the Q interval last Q high was 1358.80 and low was 1199.80 so the amplitude was 59. With fractal waves subwaves should for half so the range was 59 so half if 29.50. Subtracting that from the current Q high of 1375.15 gives us 1345.65 and as prices are below this the same fractal bottom would be 59 from the high which gives 1316.15 which has been broken. So we have strong fractal evidence of the top being in.....

Gold Q Sep 2016

On the monthly fractal the July range (amplitude) was 1375.15-1311.0=64.15.  For August 1367.30-1304.38=62.92 so almost an exact equal amplitude.... adding more evidence for the change in trend and the high being in place.... and a break of last months low with the amplitude of app 64 gives a D-1 target of  from this months high of 1311 of app 1250. Sub wave formation would give a target midway around 1280.

Gold M Sep 2016

On the Weekly interval we are on the trend change amplitude talked about previously being the modified lower parallel - the red dashed MLL so we can expect some support here and could get a retest of the 1330 area before moving into the apex of a triangle over the next few weeks subdividing to give us a "slingshot" break down using MA terminology with MAP waves explanation.....

Gold W 1Sep

A quick look at the dollar show a target of 100 in mid Q4 .....

USD Sep 2016

24 Responses to Gold September 2016

  1. Profile photo of Marc Marc says:

    Thanks @hermann for posting updates… Good call 🙂

    A quick update…. failure of Trump gold bounce means new lows….. it looks like only end of next year and looks like that will be W-1 of M-5. ….. that will be great because it means Trump will get in and manage to do something positive and the low will be just before the end on his term where confidence in his successor will be the tipping point for the bottom…. so the risk of WWIII with Killery Hiltery has been staved off which was immediately reflected in the global war risk index dropping by 50% on Trumps election 🙂

    I have been at sea for a few weeks and will do an update once I am back in Kuwait.
    For now prices should drop to D0-12MLL for D-3 next April / May around 1100 before a summer bounce and a spike low by year end breaking 1000.

    For shorter term prices dropped to D0-1-2MLL so expect them to revisit the ML before continuing back down.

    • Profile photo of Jay Jay says:

      Thank you Marc for the update. Looking forward to the deep-dive.

      • Profile photo of Jay Jay says:

        USD may be finally topping out against the JPY. SHould also be the starting shot for gold. Comments welcome.

        • Profile photo of Hermann Hermann says:

          Great job Jay!
          Yes that looks like a double fractal size wave +5, just like in gold the -5 wave.
          In gold i see perhaps some more downside till Monday for extrem 1140, but that depends on US economy data i think. Italian referendum likely will bring no change since Rentzi simply will not resign, because most politicians are liars.
          So that could be a good cause for a EUR bounce, with YEN already overstretched.

          But for gold the longer outlook is terrible. This bounce might even fail to go over 1200 again. So lets be careful here. The M-4 is in. Marc has a 5 wave pattern and i a 3, but that is only academical question, since our last 3 weekly pivots match and gold broke 1200. So we will see Marthys below 1000 sooner or later, depending on the strength of this coming bounce.

  2. Profile photo of Hermann Hermann says:

    Some calls sold out for nearly double, (mostly in silver miners) so the risk for the rest is not that high anymore.

    Chart shows me a bigger wave failure to the upside, but not definitive. If we come over 1232 than that would be a super bullish indicator near term.

  3. Profile photo of Hermann Hermann says:

    Small wave failure to the upside just as i posted.

    Lets see if the small thing is the indicator of major things following.

  4. Profile photo of Hermann Hermann says:

    Dawning of a new day. Here in old Germany.
    The last fork for m-5 of c-5 of d-5 is pointing down into the Abyss.

    At least no wave failure here in Asia.

    In an old child quiz show the kids had to stay before one of 3 gates waiting, if they are correct, as the light was coming in one of the doors.

    Thats my feeling now, waiting if the wave prolongs or someone saves my day, making the pivot, when sun rises in USA.

  5. Profile photo of Hermann Hermann says:

    W-4 incoming for Gold!

    Perhaps about 10-20 left for the pivot. Obvious thats maximum or we will see wave failure and a real breakdown in gold.
    But since we have seen 110 points down after 50 points up in 3 days, this is panic mode and the crowd should be up to run the other way as well. The Donald effect is solving so much dirt and rust. Hope we can cope with that..

    Today i bought many mostly long term call options to manage the wild swings or come out only with a blue eye if wave failure happens.
    The main reason was, that some long terms are real cheap now. The guys are in panic mode. Nobody gives a nickel on gold even for long term with inflation prospects. Do not now why but chart means strong buy now. Some powder is still dry to get in, if gold is really playing with the pivot f for short term action or buying puts if it drops below 1200.

    As with the election you can even buy both puts and calls and make a profit. I expect spreads to widden in the future after more vola so better to buy as long it is cheap, if someone want to play both sides.

    Time to show if we learned something through our lessons. It is getting harder but with faster and perhaps more reward.

  6. Profile photo of Chris Chris says:

    Is anyone here going to the WEC?

  7. Profile photo of Hermann Hermann says:

    Interesting with gold. I have no clear pivot. The chart shows it should go down, with -4 on the run. But some miners are clearly in an uptrend.
    Perhaps a little wave failure here in gold.
    Either way, signals are not all in the same way, so no trade for me.

  8. Profile photo of Hermann Hermann says:

    Now i think, i am back in the wave count. But my last pivot d-3 is a little bit intuitive, since i see a amplitude change, so exact measurement is hard to do.
    But either way, since we crossed ML of W already it is a nice drop. I give it a 80% chance for the near bounce too fail at the 1280-1300 area. After that a lower low, what would be a good (and possible very short lived) buying opportunity for W+5.
    Only a drop through 1200 area would obviously bring a break down.

  9. Profile photo of Hermann Hermann says:

    Now i slowly work through the advanced technics. To me it is until now not obvious that a break of 1375 would be the confirmation of a new bull market, since i have diffrent pivots for the long run.
    I see we are most likely on W+4 and here at a point for decision. The modified Schiff Pitchforks guides that the chart should very soon go up. Otherwise the boys on Wallstreet will get nervous, cause this trend channel is surely in their armoury. If we have a wave failure here, we would already be on the W+5, and see up action very soon the next weeks. Otherwise no wave failure and down it goes.
    Using the old downtrend as a shadow indicator like MA does, and seeing the fork for W+4, we should get a bottom at 1230- 1210 region.
    Sure this can be a long term entry to the upside if my basic long term count is wrong.
    After that i see still no indication why not a W+5 should bring Gold to the region of 1380 -1420. But it seems a good idea to me to sell such a M pivot. Either way it is M+1 or M-4. The wave should provide enough guidance to later bring in a better long term entry point to the upside.

    But perhaps i miss the point here, because in advanced theory i am only at the beginning. Would be happy for a clue.

  10. Profile photo of Marc Marc says:

    As discussed prices have followed the script, having tested the 1330 and moved into the apeks of the triangle and we should have a decision over the next week to retest support around 1315. (bottom dashed bold red line)

    Here either we will get a retest of the recent high to make a subwave, or break down to the upper bold green support, which will make its 4th attempt to break down……… once this breaks the lower bold green line is the price time objective. If we get a breakdown expect prices to move rapidly down to pivotal support around 1250, and the intersection of cyclical support around 1234 mid November…..

    So politically what can we possibly see ahead? November = US election. A bit of calming before uncertainty?
    DECISION POINT….The next time target is 21 January – New US president takes office? Retest of 1300 area.

    Here we either get the breakout or break down of gold long term. This is the important one for long term entries either long or short and we will only get count clarification with a new low or a break above 1375.15 for a long term bull market.

  11. Profile photo of Hermann Hermann says:

    Today should complete c-1 of d-5. Ideal target should be just above 1220. Perhaps before the second and third FED speech.
    Perhaps some upside action is possible, but beware. FED Friday looks like end of the road.

  12. Profile photo of Hermann Hermann says:

    Worked out the count more in detail.
    I can not help me. This has to be a real nice prove of flash waves or it will be a wave failure. Look at my last centi counts.

    Marc if that count is right, this should be a prove for flash waves. The wave structure is hidden in the fractals smaller than 1 min for the news.

    By the way, if that is right, this would be highly tradeable.

  13. Profile photo of Hermann Hermann says:

    I made a little upside trade that i closed to early at 1338 in gold, since i simply miscounted eur- usd for very bad looking. Now eur-usd slowly loses its touch to gold. The pendulums not swinging in sync any more, i think soon. The trade was quite good anyway. Positions average +100% but only +5% on portfolio for low voulme, and that was the most i was willing to invest.

    Now i am short in the area 1350. It seems quite simply. I we get a hike in mid September, we will go down. If no hike we might get a wave failure on D to the upside. If we have two hikes this year than possibly a wave failure to the downside on W with waterfall. This would create the perfect slingshot move down to January to credit Martin Armstrong here. All of that action will not change the big trend, but can crash our trading in one way or another.

    So have a little caution here. This begins short term, since i only see a c+3 pivot.

  14. Profile photo of srdjan tabor srdjan tabor says:

    Hi Guys..just wanted to share my observation after a long vacation. Looks like 6-7th of September high for the year (my view) Max this week or latest till 16th of September we have a high and then off toward 1133 area year end…Stop above august high…I am shorting between 1347-1357 area. Somewhere along Mark 1355 line…

    Best of luck to you all

    Srdjan

  15. Profile photo of Marc Marc says:

    Thanks for your support when I have not been on 🙂

  16. Profile photo of Hermann Hermann says:

    Great chart work Marc

    Under your charts mine looks like a barbarian artwork of a primitive culture.
    But at least it shows the same area of 1330 as last stand for the bulls, before diving down.

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