Gold WC 4 July 2016

Last week again gave us no direction. On announcement of Austrias election fraud we got a boost into the close. This weeks opening above 1337.73 puts 1350.91 as the first target. Just above we have BREXIT high providing pivotal resistance at 1358.80. That is followed by cyclical resistance at 1379.91 and pivotal at 1392.08. To the downside we have cyclical support starting at 1310.85, last weeks low at 1305.50 and then a gap down to double cyclical support at 1283.44. This is followed by a further gap down to a group of support starting with cyclical at 1261.82, 1241.23 and 1227.56 with  pivotal at 1250.65.

Gold WC 4 July 2016

The pre BREXIT low could be noise......... Until 1310.85 is broken the trend is up om the weekly interval.

 

21 Responses to Gold WC 4 July 2016

  1. Chris says:

    Is this the ideal intersections of the ML’s I should be looking for or am I way off?

    • Marc says:

      @chrissb purple first – yip. If it does no drop to MLL then we should get retest of high on MLU.

      • Evi says:

        Hi all,

        It’s a long time ago since I posted my last chart… sorry about that… Kind of missed the 1375 Reversal short… Confidence is key – and I admit I lost it a bit and got insecure.

        https://www.tradingview.com/x/blBfFHME/

        Anyhow… now trying to figure out if we have already seen wave 5 (hence the top) or if 3 (was noise and we are forming now wave 4/5) for the final up before turning back down. Will also monitor MA’s reversals and think as we are in deciding zone, the sideline is not the worst place to be.

        GL all, Evi

  2. Marc says:

    Just got back from meeting Grandson 🙂

    Will update tomorrow – but looking like had quiet a bit of action over last few days!!!

    • Jay says:

      Hi Marc,

      Glad to have you back. Family visits are most important 🙂

      I would greatly appreciate an update from you since I am not sure on my counts at this point.
      Does it still look likely that we get a +5 test of the top towards the end of the month?

      Thanks,

      Jay

  3. Hermann says:

    Now i have a point here, that i can not give any direction.
    For me the picture is divided. XAU Gold and Future gold have a reaction high – new high??
    With this comes the clear anomaly in front of the high .

    On the longer run i do not have any doubt, that we will get a +5 weekly wave possibly with a banking crises in Europe. Italian banks are in extreme danger. If crises breaks up here i see no way that Deutsche Bank will not go down next after them.
    This would give a nice spike +5 high.

    Marc do you have a clue here?

  4. Tony T says:

    @hermann and @marc

    Mid last week you two had differing opinions of the next expected wave (irregular as you are both usually lock-and-step on such matters).

    As I always preface, I’m still learning – but I have the next wave pushing mid-to-end of week to test he pivotal @ $1392.

    Any thoughts and/or opposition is always welcomed.

  5. Gleb says:

    Looking for a little pop up to resistance to go short around 1380 300 contracts

  6. Hermann says:

    I would say we can possibly get a more severe pulling back at least to the 1300 zone before making a real high. But i do not have much time at the moment for counting, so do not take me too serious.

  7. Marc says:

    looks like could get a pullback here to 1350 before testing 1400 next week (1392).

  8. Hermann says:

    Tony T: I got badly hit holding this 3* etfs to long especially in the case of loses.
    It is mainly a place for daytreaders to make their gains.

    Better not become a ,,investor” in 3* etfs. Your investot live could be short.

    • Tony T says:

      Thank you Hermann. I didn’t mean to imply that I was investing in these ETFs, rather that I was applying the wave theory patterns and statistical probabilities to day-trading the leveraged ETFs… E.G. We’re looking for Gold to rise and hit resistance at 1379(ish)… So when markets opened today I sold my position in JDST (@ a loss for the first time) and moves the full buying power to JNUG @ $249.88/share… JNUG was up to $263 in AH trading, representing nearly 5.25% (from where I opened my position). At that time gold was around 1360… As I send this message Gold is up to 1368. Should this hold overnight I should expect to wake up to additional 3-4%… Not bad for a 24 hour hold.

      So I was just putting it to the group to see what everyone thought. About the idea of applying it in this way, to gauge if anyone had interest in these types of plays. Short of significant unforseen news or reports, using our 80% statistical probability with the movement based on the waves should help all of us, based on our risk tolerance, to enter/exit positions based on our trajectory of where XAUUSD ‘should be moving’…

      That’s all. I got my ass handed to me last Friday because I held. I held because I was waiting for the slight downturn that never came because of the Austrian election, hence my request to know types/sources that people liked for their news…

      I’m still learning- just insanely curious and willing to take risks.

      With that said we’re rapidly approaching cyclical resistance. Anyone seeing something I’m not?

  9. Hermann says:

    If gold exceeds the Brexit high, than it seems obvious that the Brexit high is no W+3, but only a D+3. In this case the D+4 is already in and we soon will get a much higher spike high to get to a W+3. The high should be at least near the resistance zone, Marc describes.

  10. Hermann says:

    Just a short input.
    The today high looks like a +3 wave, so i expect new highs over the Brexit high.
    This would imply a even more bullish count, as far Brexit high is exceeded.

  11. Tony T says:

    Due to the sentimentality/emotionality of Gold’s movement within the retail investor pool, short of another significant (‘unforeseen’) socioeconomic event such as Austria’s election, should we expect global markets to still feel ~uncertain~ about the future.

    The whole thing is a bit odd to be honest. On the eve of BREXIT all markets fall and Gold touches 1358, then over the next 3 trading days even the S&P returned to pre-BREXIT values. Literally 2071 @ the beginning of the week of BREXIT and then back to 2071 the following week.

    So where I get lost is in the relationship between the markets and gold. The Recovery of all major US indexes at such a rapid pace following BREXIT would have be believing that investors are moving capital out of safe-havens and back into the stock market…

    I suppose I’d also like to put it to the group- what are your personal choices for global economic and geopolitical ‘breaking news’? I’m in the US and as gold soared on Friday, I was befuddled– not even realizing the Chiapas brought in by the Austrian vote. It was only after markets closed that I found a source that cited EU referendums being suggested by the heads of the Czech Republic, France and the Netherlands.

    Because Gold doesn’t seem to be playing by the traditional wave pattern rules and, as Marc has pointed out to me, investors rush to gold, gold indexes, gold miners and gold mining ETFs as a function of uncertainty, I can’t help but wonder if we shouldn’t be lending more significance to the major events as we dissect the patterns and come up with our targets. If the wave pattern holds true absent of major “uncertainty-inducing” news, and if we set aside/negate any market/commodity manipulation by the powers-that-be, then is it possible that what may be typically considered noise could simply be the markets emotional response to uncertainty and and that we should, as a group, try to keep our ear to the ground on these events and collectively modify our investment strategy as soon as news breaks that effectively breaks the expected pattern?

    Necessity is the mother of all invention. So when, on Friday, I was looking for a downturn in gold, however slight (~$10-15) and instead saw gold move from $1322 to $1342 in a day… I lost my shirt. Again, my fault and no one else’s… But does serve as a catayst for my inquiring about the weight everyone gives to these events relative to the wave theory along with their preferred media outlets for capturing this news as soon as it happens. Any help would be greatly appreciated as on Friday afternoon I was, in every sense of the word, a ‘day late and a dollar short’.

    Given the weekly forecast, I’m inclined to exit my bear 3x junior gold mining ETF (JDST) at market open on Tuesday and shift over to its counterpart JNUG. Any advise is welcomed.

    Also, I’m not sure if this is appropriate for the group or not but, setting Friday aside… I have managed to apply the MWA wave pattern in a seemingly simplistic way to these 2 ETFs, using straight plays on each using the Robinhood App, which provides fee-free trading and a “margin-like” service called Robinhood Instant, which (@ no cost) gives you instant access to your proceeds rather than having to wait 4 days for it to clear. Doing this I managed the following:
    Monday – 2 trades +9.13% return
    Tuesday – 3 trades +13.02% return
    Wednesday – 2 trades +7.36% return
    Thursday – held my JDST position waiting for Gold’s downturn
    Friday – still held same JDST position waiting for Gold’s downturn – 0 trades, but -19.53%

    Current – still holding 1500 shares of JDST, hoping Friday was a Bull Trap and that I can recover at least 40-60% on Tuesday…

    I hope it’s ok that I shared that Marc. The reason for sharing is to highlight that my application of the Theory is being done with no puts, calls, covered calls, options, etc. This allows me to simply watch the movement of Gold and the movement of the underlying index for the 3X ETFs (GDXJ) and simply enter during the dips, exit during the peaks, etc.

    Had I of known what happened with the Austrian election I could have exited the JDST position immediately and proceeded to capture a minimum of 10% of the 20% increase on Friday. This would have negated the 10% JDST decrease overnight Thursday and would have netted me +30.xx% k the week. Not a bad trading week!

    Anyway, I hope that this post is at least comical if not interesting. And I’d love to hear any and all opinions on the questions I’ve put to the group.

    • Tony T says:

      Typo: Chiapas = chaos

      • Jay says:

        Hi Tony,

        Below is all just my opinion.

        Once the markets started pricing in the unexpected Brexit results, the central banks flooded the markets with liquidity at 0% interest. I believe that this stopped the stocks crash in its tracks and gave momentum to the bounces. In the process the market makers will make some nice quick profits selling their bottom-bought stocks back to retail investors trying to recuperate some of their losses chasing the momentum. However when new liquidity stops, so will the bounce.

        The precious metals advances have exceeded all expectations this year and due to the uncertainties that you also mention capital is confused on where to go. Hence stocks, USD and gold going up. The unexpected Brexit result has pushed prices to further extremes which creates noise.

        Socio-economic events and data releases do attract and trigger pivot points imo. I went cash into Brexit, because I did not feel like taking the risk. I have made a few nice trades using Marc’s system on gold on DUST/NUGT inverted (e.g. shorting DUST). I am still cash waiting to find a new entry point. Friday’s jobs number can be the decider again on which direction we will continue.

        I do still expect a final bottom test of gold from a fundamental point of view. Euro banking crisis is here, it is just not being acknowledged yet. Euro will fall towards USD. Money will flee towards USD. The great worldwide USD deleveraging will increase defaults and in turn rise the USD further. USD rise through parity with Euro I think, which will cause price of gold to drop in USD. I am just not sure anymore where it will find support.

        With uncertainty being pretty much the new normal, I wonder if these effects will not simply wear off after a while. Then either something new comes, or we adept.

        • Tony T says:

          @Jay thank you for responding. Only one! 🙂

          I appreciate your sharing your opinion. I happen to agree with you, though as we all know timing is as much a function of success as properly predicting the movements. So curious about the time table you have in mind regarding:
          > drying up of liquidity leading to stock market retraction
          > fundamental retest of gold bottom

          My logical framework tells me this:
          Very near term (1-2 wks) – chaos continues in Europe = gold up
          Near Term(2-4 wks) – new liquidity dries = market down, gold up more but begins being extremely overbought
          Mid Term (4-8 wks) – USD continues to strengthen against Euro & GBP & gold peaks = USD up, gold begins its slide (but to where)

          Would love to get yours and any others thoughts on this. Extremely furious about the timing element. As its only the second trading day of the week and we’ve already blown through the BREXIT high…

          • Tony T says:

            Damn autocorrect… *furious = “curious”

          • Tony T says:

            So basically I’m thinking we’d start to see gold retrace in the next month or 2… Though I haven’t looked at the wave patterns that far out to back anything that I’m saying. This would be notthing more than my from my gut intuitive stab in the dark. Which Sometimes serves me well and others… Not so much.

            Thanks again for your reply and any additional thoughts

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