Gold M June – Bounce before drop into BREXIT

Last months caution was warranted with the new high, which was followed by a new low!

This has done nothing to resolve the count and here I have the 2 alternative counts - the difference is the ideal weekly wave target was 1300.19, and ideal wave monthly target 1315.20....... and the high was 1303.76, closer to the weekly target but timing 2 months late, but not quiet the 1315.20 which was this months timing as well......... so the bulls and bears are giving nothing away other than we are going to retest last years low!

D-1 is expected to be made in the triangle shown.

Gold M June big picture

In detail resistance starts at 1273.75, followed by 1298.02, 1311.04 and then the monthly target one month late of 1315.20. Quarterly resistance is the MF MLU and stands at 1373.14. Support starts at 1143.60, and you can see the gap in the pivotal support formed by this months low at 1199.80 down to 1142.97 (cyclical support 1143.60) and nearby 1132.08. That is then followed by another gap down to the MLL's starting at 1073.53.

I AM ASSUMING May HIGH WAS W-4 currently for the count. This was / is my initial count prior to the May high until prices show us otherwise.

June is going to be interesting as BREXIT is the last week!  On the Weekly we should have a bounce this week to a high towards the end of the week / early next week of 1231.57 to make d-3. From there it looks like dropping into BREXIT to the 1140 area where we have a cluster of support to make D-1. For this week resistance starts at 1283.17, closely followed by 1295.62.

Gold WC 30 May

On the daily interval we can see the detailed deci waves -1 and -3. d-1-2-3ML and d0-1-2MLU give an ideal wave target of 6 June, 1231.57, before reverting to a BREXIT low in the mid 1140's to make D-1.

Gold D 31 May

14 Responses to Gold M June – Bounce before drop into BREXIT

  1. Hermann says:

    So next try, but i am unsure if it is all one fractal smaller.

    • Marc says:

      @hermann I updated.
      I used your third and 4th pivots as -1 and -2.
      Draw line from blue 3 to pink (lower parallel, then draw a parallel to last blue target app 1332. If new low then most likely wicks are noise, and pink is -3 and next low -5. If so draw parallel from that low (blue-3) and parallel to last blue with ML intersection target.

  2. Hermann says:

    Ok the count is wrong, back to desk.
    The low is to low…

  3. Hermann says:

    Now i begin to look diffrent for counting. So i try to count the subwave as well, i do not like too much noise. A subwave looks like a breaking wave at the beach to me.
    Seems to me that many changes come from amplitude changes and with flash wave fractal size changes as well.
    Until now it is only a wild guess, but i try to do it within the basic rules.

  4. Hermann says:

    The Brexit high seems to me a W+3 now. I am unable to decide if it is a M-4 or a M+1 we are in, too.

  5. Hermann says:

    Marc please look into the forum theory section.
    I think we have reached an important point now for terminology evolution. 🙂

  6. Hermann says:

    The shock of todays high did open my eyes for the count.
    We have no wave failure on a high fractal here with the supposed to deep low.

    From the low of December 2015 this is now a d+3 or perhaps a D+3 but almost too few candles for Daily in wave +2 and +3
    pivot c+1 of d+1 was 02/11 c+2 was 02/16 … c+5 was 02/05
    wave +2 was over 05/30
    wave +3 is nearly over or over now
    All forks hit their target zone. OK i did not found the correct fork for +2 because i did not count the down turn.

    Please Marc follow the forks to confirm this.
    This should be the count on the middle fractals. But i do not know the major trend in w or m.

    • Marc says:

      dec low 0
      11 feb 1
      16 feb 2
      11 Mar 3
      1 Apr 4
      2 May 5 of 1
      30May 2
      Today high 1 of 3 in accordance with wave counting rules assuming no noise……..
      Over ML for this count so bullish – must close over 1292.

      If todays high was noise then that would be 2 May high W-4, 30May d-1 and today “noise” d-2

      We should spend a few hours between 1282 and 1296. and then down to about 1270 tomorrow, then at a guess going into BREXIT we should get smaller bars – lower highs and higher lows.

      Will post it all after close tomorrow and go through probable count for both bull and bear incase today not noise! This may be a good one to put a spread – puts and calls 2 months out as we should get a big move following BREXIT – bearing in mind you will loose one way but move other way should be more than enough to cover plus good profit.

  7. Marc says:

    Confirmation of December low is at least Monthly fractal is as good as here – monthly chart above ideal wave target 1315.20 as good as achieved with today’s high so far!!!

    Will we get confirmation of December bottom as the final low in gold?? 1392.08 from wave confirmation, and 1373.14 from cyclical confirmation

    • Tony T says:

      Again, I apologize – still learning. So with todays high, and now back down at 1288.84… do we have December as the confirmation and are still looking for 1392.08 wave conf. and 1373.14 cyclical conf.?

      Just trying to gauge whether we still see gold riding high as we lead up to brexit with its ultimate waterfall thereafter (if one assumes BREXIT doesn’t get approved)…

  8. Srdjan says:

    Aloha to all…

    Hope everyone is doing well, I was fixing my house a bit and relaxing from the market…Now looking into things, we are getting close to some nice trades so I will post my view, and luckily it looks similar to what Marc sees…I believe we printed wave 2 yesterday with the low at 1205.8. Additionally to wave count, FB pointed to area around 1207 as the low for this pull back as well..Playing short term I am expecting today big bounce above 1220 at least (1225-1230 might hit), followed by a small retracement tomorrow, and followed by wave 5 after the data for payrolls (not that I follow that closely) but this time its happening around wave 5 count…Last time was around -2…I see a possibility of even 1240-1263 as a max (sounds a bit too much for few days) but we might want to shake all the undecided bears and then followed next week by decline below 1190…

    I think this move will be fun so lets all get together to check each other..

    All the best

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