Gold Q2 2016 – Bearish

Gold opened bearish below 1247.74. This now is resistance and the expected high for this Quarter. This quarter the low is expected to challenge the December low 1062.86, as shown with the projected bar, before moving back up to challenge 1200, and far too early but the expected bars for the final low into Q2 2017.

Support and resistance on fractals is as shown in the chart.

Gold Q2

Q3 open is projected to open below 1203.16

3 Responses to Gold Q2 2016 – Bearish

  1. Hermann says:

    Marc your wave count developed much!
    Now it perfectly fits with my recognized behaviour to the big weekly turning points!
    That the 2011 high is a Monthly +3 also makes a lot of sense to me.

    From the ,,zoom factor” it matches with the lower fractals on the chart. All can be looked at the scale it should be so monthly for monthly pivots etc.

    Might that be the right count

    So we looked much to small at the big big picture.
    Thank you for your patience

  2. Marc says:

    1 – Waves – the while wave is Q wave -4, which has 5 monthly waves and we are in the final wave down of that – M-5. Within that we have also just started weekly wave -5 off the March high, but as you correctly point out it can go to the channel MLU – Today I will be updating in detail gold and will label pivots so you can see the count clarified.
    2 – Human behaviour is incredibly important and recall what happened on the PEI forum as the top was forming – loads of people were throwing the towel in – and many burned severely after the conference with the second benchmark!. I find just reading the mood in the headings of other groups – and I dont say much because have been kicked off so many as I have a nasty habit of asking questions!!!! BUT apparently this week EWI changed their count to longer term bull – and that to me says we certainly going to get a consolidation soon, which with human behaviour is going to test the lows – and I have started looking at US indices in more detail and there is a difference I think many will find very interesting!
    3 – With the waves there are behavioural traits and we will talk about them in the training.

    I have something I call the Market Oracle indicator – read the headlines of the featured articles, then sort them to pm’s and indices and if the majority are bullish top is near / in and bottom if bearish. Much more reliable than flipping a coin!!!

    A diary is a good idea… never thought about that – I do alot of reflection though!

  3. Hermann says:

    So on a quarterly level you count the waves down from the high in 2011.
    Till the end of 2012 wave -2 is finished forming the trend upper canal.
    Wave -3 goes on to end of 2015.
    Than we have the panic event of a -4 to March, or at the theoretical extreme we are still in it and going up to 1430 upper trend canal and highest number without breaking the rules for the rebound to mid 2013 was 1433.

    As this is human behaviour, almost every participant should be able to recognize the bigger waves and especially the pivots in his own mind with the changing in emotions and recognize the situation diffrent. Mentally i was with gold all this time and also had stocks a long time, so i felt the pivots. For me 2013 was not so a feeling of a big pivot like ,,oh god now the downtrend is over and we return to a new uptrend. ” That feeling should be with a big wave 4 like most in the WEC forum show signs of that know.
    Will you agree that it would be appropriate to say make a diary of investment feelings to clearer see the bigger/ or if experienced trader smaller pivots, since this is about human behaviour?
    Is this seeking for the correct pivots the cause for Marthy for until now stay away from the counting, seeing them as subjective?
    I studied psychologics ans sociologics and can say that this is not subjective. You can make the same type of statistics about the feelings of market participants as you can with the wave counting. I strongly guess you will find similar results with strong prove of a regular specific emotional pattern in the waves.
    A small sample would be enough i guess, but not a connected group like WEC forum, in such a bounded group can envolve a diffrent set of feelings than by general market participants.
    But even a qualitativ analysis can bring valid answers, for example if i examine my own feelings at the pivots and waves. For this a diary could be helpful. , i think.

Leave a Reply