Gold Daily – D5/W5/M-4/Q4 – Caution 12March

Not often that I get around to doing such detailed projections but I am very lucky to have such good staff that not only do I come to work a week a month but there is little for me to do because they are so good!

So the final top before new lows - stop loss is a tight bail at 1191.50. Target is 1285 to 1300 on the 25th Feb, then we off to retest last Decembers low!

Detailed Wave count shown.

Gold Q4M_4W5D5 to make pivot M_4

I will be traveling again from Thursday evening and may not be online until Sunday. Back to do more skiing after helping my mum out to get some stuff from Croatia  😀

5 Responses to Gold Daily – D5/W5/M-4/Q4 – Caution 12March

  1. Marc says:

    Well as previously said the top has stretched out! the 18th looks like a possible top this week, however that on a smaller fractal looks like it may only be m1 or c3, which would make sense – way too many longs and shorts need to be shaken out and drawing that out over another week or 2 would certainly do that!. The extreme top is projected at 1307 by 25 March based on the daily wave superposition extreme (daily D5 breakdown confirmation), whilst on the weekly level of 1308.9 by mid April. This most likely means that the top may be made this week and then we will get no new highs but get retest failures before a large drop as bulls go home for the 1100 December retest!
    Pivotal resistance stands at 1263.37, 1279.85, 1284.53 (centi 2 confirmation) and 1307.50
    Pivotal support stands at 1248.56, 1239.96, 1237.24 (deci 5 confirmation of the end of this uptrend)
    Cyclical resistance starts at 1259.12, 1274.92, 1279.15(centi) , 1280.62(deci), 1295.17(weekly) and 1305.15(weekly)
    Cyclical support starts at 1247.55(deci) 1239.52(daily) and 1221.30(weekly)

    So what to expect tomorrow….. without looking at a smaller fractal it looks like c2 is either in or we will get a slightly lower low, followed by formation of m1 around 1259 with a pullback for m2 followed by further subdivision retesting 1259 to make µ1 and pullback for µ2, and if we dont get the breakout tomorrow it should occur shortly after to test the 1280 level to make either µ3 or m3.
    Below is the trading range expected with the 3 breakout levels, which basically will get shifted to the day after depending on sub wave formation.

  2. Marc says:

    It looks like d3 will be made by the 10th around 1290.
    We should then have a pullback around 1260, followed by another test of 1300.

  3. Marc says:

    OK so I was out by 2 hours……
    where to next? 8March low.

  4. Marc says:

    From MAP Waves technically we have confirmed pivot W3 and W4 so any high now is within the wave counting rules.

    Technically this may be the final wave up on the D fractal, as shown there is an alternate count where due to wave superposition d2 could be an extreme wave, or a normal D wave…… weekly array suggests it is an extreme wave, and based on that the target for d3 is 1280 shown in the blue circle.

    We should then have a retest of the purple ML which the arrays show for next Tuesday.

  5. Marc says:

    Gold is getting ready to breakout to test 1300. In this weeks analysis I highlighted the breakout triangle and it has progressed as expected. The breakout will occur no later than next Monday.
    I have shown the break down lines, of which the lower blue dashed line is cyclical confirmation and the wave count breaks. Also I have shown the wave count confirmations for the expected break out.
    Ideally we get a further test of the resistance line before the breakout which will make it decisive, whereas if we breakout without a further test expect a retest before moving higher.

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