Gold M-4 March – Caution

OK so jumping gun a bit here.... but rainy overcast day and cant do the gardening my mom wanted me to do so thought I would be a bit productive........

I have gone into a lot more detail so that people can get an understanding of the application of the methodology so that you can learn your own stop loss criteria! My current recommendation is caution - little potential upside gain as we are nearing a smaller fractal top! Is it worth playing on the weekly level - look at the weekly chart - that is what I call your investment horizon!!!

In February as discussed in the monthly report prices broke out above the expected consolidation. Prices turned at the original count W-1-2-3ML as shown below, together with W-2-3-4 if W-4 is in place.

The consolidation zones are shown as red triangles for W-4, and if the December low is Q4. then M consolidation zone in red plus orange triangles.

Gold Futures M Mar2016-02-28_13-46-16

This would give a late Q4 for an extreme correction by July 2018 of 785 as shown below.

Gold Futures M march 2016-02-28_14-07-13

If in March we get a new high around 1303, then the wave count changes to the red alternative count shown below the upper channel parallel on the M-3-4-5ML as shown below and a break above that will turn the probabilities to the December low being Q4.

Gold Futures M_3_4_5 ML march16-02-28_14-40-30

Below you can see we have cyclical resistance starting at 1255.92, 1303.47 (plus pivotal resistance at 1307.59, followed by cyclical resistance at 1342.08, and at 1392.08 both cyclical and pivotal resistance for March.

Gold Futures March resistance 16-02-28_14-21-51

Support starts at 1221, and above you can see the expected bar development for W-4 and the weekly alternative count, making  a high around 1303.47 with a possible spike to 1307.59.

A break of 1222, whether before another without another high favours W-4 is in place and we have started the final Weekly wave down to make Q4, with cyclical resistance at 1173, followed by 1058 and 1037, with pivotal resistance between at 1046.

A break above into the orange triangle shown above will strongly favour the December low being Q4, however count first moves up one fractal to the orange rectangle count shown above the upper monthly channel parallel , and we can expect an ideal pivot at 1392.08, with a consolidation  around 1348 first.

From a wave development and shape this favours the start of March making a new high as shown, before turning.

What ever happens this is pretty much an ultimate shake out - of both bulls and bears, which is what is needed to make a trend change. Wherever this high is made - there will be a retest of the December low!!!

Monthly confirmations are as follows;

December low is Q4 break above 1392.08

W-4 is in place break below 1046.54

One Response to Gold M-4 March – Caution

  1. Marc says:

    Prices so far this month have confirmed we are in the final wave which was confirmed with the break of 1263.37.
    From an ideal wave formation the ideal high is not in, which is projected at 1303.10, but technically 1293.09 is the minimum. Less than this warns of this wave sub dividing. If this is the case expect the high in June and that will be confirmed with a break above this months high.
    Confirmation of the top is 1217.96

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