Gold M 2016 February

Gold Q1

From the monthly interval chart we can see we are currently in the final monthly wave of this consolidation of quarterly wave Q-4. The chart shows the wave count as Q-4/M-5/W-5/D-5.

On the futures gold is expected to test the W0-3-4MLU at 1135 this month to make d-2.

Gold 2016 M Extreme 783 1Apr2018

The extreme correction projects to April 2018 at 783, being Q012MLL and W0-3-4MLU.

The ideal correction projects to Q012SPMLU to Q3, and the 3 projections are Oct 2016 at 903, ideal July 2016 at 899 and early May 2016 at 894.

Due to action / reaction of Q3 overshooting Q012MLU a spike panic low projects to March 2017 at 785, ideal Dec 2016 at 745, and early projection is for June at 834.

On the Gold spot monthly interval chart we have the same wave count. I have drawn in the double amplitude monthly consolidation line which once breached should indicate that Q4 is in place, resulting in the continuation of the Q bull market. It gives the extreme projection as August 2017 at 783.

Gold Spot 2016 M February




5 Responses to Gold M 2016 February

  1. Elizabeth says:

    Hi Marc

    Thank you so much for your excellent remark and analysis. I am glad that you are doing what you love and enjoy. Here it is just the same old. South Africa really in a mess with a president that is not only corrupt but stupid as well but I suppose that goes for most countries.

    Take care and stay well and yes, we will talk soon. I alays check your site for updates.

    My best

  2. Marc says:

    Gold today broke out of its expected trading range!
    This means that either the bottom is in, or the wave count is one fractal out.

    If the bottom is in then this will only be confirmed with a break above 1307.59.

    A high this month below 1222.05 with a close below 1197 will only suggest that W-2 is D-2, and the recent December low is W-3 and this months high is W-4

    The later is my preferred option, but a confirmation is a break above 1307.59 or a break of the December low. This would fit in with the behaviour of people and be a false breakout to reassure the bulls and shake out the bears and by making new lows would put the majority on the wrong side, which would result in a panic bottom with a nice spike to confirm a major pivot!

    • Marc says:

      My preferred option projects the following M channel, with an early target for W-3 Aug/Sep 2016 just under 900, with a 750 low by Mid 2017, and a late low of 840 by 2020.

  3. Elizabeth says:

    HI marc

    I tried to post a message to you and then it seemed to disappear. How are you doing? Are you sailing and where are you. All well?

    Am trying to understand your post on gold. Followed your chat with Aurora Borealis and it seemed tome you were saying that it would top at 1127 and it did not. Are you now saying it will top at 1135. Only interested because of its inverse relation to the US dollar. Would be glad to hear your opinion as I value it.

    Take care and kind regards

    • Marc says:

      Hi Elizabeth,
      Thanks for your message! Sorry been rather lazy lately. Boat is back in the water and have done a run down to Lankhawi as well as a bit of cruising around Phuket! Wonderful to be back on the water!!!!!
      Am doing a ski season in Andorra which is wonderful. Since leaving Uni have always wanted to do it!!!!

      OK …….. gold broke out today and above I have laid out the 2 possible scenarios. It has not made its low – that is not based on my cycle forks as they need confirmation….. it is based on human behaviour – still far too many bulls in town for a bottom and more importantly on the monthly fractal scale the wave structure is not one of a significant bottom – The December bottom is not a nice isolated monthly tick! Looking for something much more like 2013 bottom or even better a spike bottom or hammer on bars or doji on candles.

      My interpretation of what is going on……. people have no idea with the wild volatility at the moment and they are scared…….. which will result in more money going into safer bets – or at least old wives tales of what safer bets are at first.
      For some insane reason central banks are still QE infinity to force inflation which will never come as a result! In addition they are turning to negative interest rates.
      The US raised rates despite much pressure from the rest of the world as there is so much US$ denominated debt now. The -ve rates are effectively doing the same job as US raising rates as the difference is important. This is going to make money move to US where at least they dont loose their money….yet!
      This means US$ will start to rise – and it has tested DX 100 twice (dashed orange ML is the breakout line) – if it breaks out next time it will retest before going to its high around 140ish (upper golden dashed MLU). That effectively doubled from the pre 2007 low, but worse most of the debt changed to dollars 2012 low (lower dashed golden MLL) – this effectively doubles the US dollar debt which cannot be paid back and the pack of cards all start to crumble and the dominos fall in contagion. By then China and Russia hopefully will have their act together!

      The search for safety will go to bonds which will cause the bubble there when they start to collapse because of the local, state and sovereign debts.

      Then that money will flow into the US the stock markets which will double from the low which should be in place by end of Summer (April at the earliest).

      The dollar break needs to occur for the PM’s to make their lows.

      Gold will only continue its bull market (on Q fractal) once US stocks and dollar are rising, and the debt crisis next phase unfolds – that means in ALL currencies the US will be in a BULL market.

      Something like this is my big picture!

      BTW old truths are no longer fact – Rise in dollar does not mean gold drops – today great example! Dollar up 0.5% – gold up nearly 3 times that. This relationship like many other old truths are NO LONGER APPLICABLE – check them open mindedly before following yesterdays doctrines.

      Talk soon and best regards

Leave a Reply