Gold Quarterly 2014 Q3 – Updated July

Quarterly Support Resistance

Q4 353 360 690 1166 1272 1377 1856 1949 2030
Q3 351 369 682 1163 1266 1368 1850 1947 2023
Q2         1258 1362      


Gold is still within its M012 fork shown in Q1 update, Moving to that MLU over Q2 and has made a high so far in Q3 on the MLU. A break above the MLU would not be a surprise due to the overreaction of M-3 below M012MLL, so things can remain undecided until next Q.

PM Gold Q2 Support Resistance 20140715

So on the quarterly fractal wave scale no surprises, all very much in line with the previous projections. Prices still have failed to test the Q123ML, however a series of subwaves are forming which will give it the energy to break below with a probable retest of the recent lows first. Timing shows we should have a decision in Q4.  On a smaller fractal wave scales further subwaves are expected to build up and Sep / Oct are in line for a decision - down!

Just to show that I also consider bullish options after much time this is the only one I could come up with - but that would only delay the break into mid 2016 before making a final low. A break above 1392 is required to make this the viable scenario!

PM Gold Q 2014071519 As bullish as I can be

4 Jan 2014 Q1

You can clearly see golds weakness for much of 2013 once it broke the M012ML, and prices failed to close above the ML for the last 3 quarters. The Quarterly channels are shown with the most likely path being darkest.

PM Gold20140104 Q

You can see that M3 was made below the M012MLL, so using its SP, and the fact that Q123ML has not yet been tested the first half of this year is expected to continue with volatility to the Q123MLU with closes expected in the oval shown, before we can expect prices to rapidly drop in the later part of 2014.

PM Gold20140104 Q range

So there will be a large crowd of bulls forming again in Q2 as prices fail to make closes below Q123ML, but will make a new low on the weekly pivot scale and the below dashed green trend line is broken that the new bull market is underway! Do not panic as the majority MUST be wrong before the bottom is in - everyone you know must be bearish over gold first! To get bullish we need a new low below Q123, and a close above the first solid green line with a confirmation retest.

PM Gold20140104 Q Bull

One Response to Gold Quarterly 2014 Q3 – Updated July

  1. Marc says:

    1 – On the attached chart I have added support and resistance levels which are highly probable reversals on smaller wave scales as well as Q wave confirmations.
    2 – Most likely path has been chosen with Q2 opening, so the correction off the 2012 top will be no later than end of 2017 and is shown in the darker channel below.
    3 – Q1 close leaves 2 possible scenarios on this tick scale.
    a – Q1 close was above the circle shown above in the last chart so expect a new high spike but below the Q Bull confirmation, so a retest around 1410 on the M012 MLU before the downtrend continues to test the Q012 and !123 ML’s (circle in above charts).
    b – Failure to make a new high will suggest a further subwave on the D level.

    4 – The target in January was 1350 and we got a high of 1361.80. Not too bad!

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