Quarterly Support Resistance
Gold is still within its M012 fork shown in Q1 update, Moving to that MLU over Q2 and has made a high so far in Q3 on the MLU. A break above the MLU would not be a surprise due to the overreaction of M-3 below M012MLL, so things can remain undecided until next Q.
So on the quarterly fractal wave scale no surprises, all very much in line with the previous projections. Prices still have failed to test the Q123ML, however a series of subwaves are forming which will give it the energy to break below with a probable retest of the recent lows first. Timing shows we should have a decision in Q4. On a smaller fractal wave scales further subwaves are expected to build up and Sep / Oct are in line for a decision - down!
Just to show that I also consider bullish options after much time this is the only one I could come up with - but that would only delay the break into mid 2016 before making a final low. A break above 1392 is required to make this the viable scenario!
4 Jan 2014 Q1
You can clearly see golds weakness for much of 2013 once it broke the M012ML, and prices failed to close above the ML for the last 3 quarters. The Quarterly channels are shown with the most likely path being darkest.
You can see that M3 was made below the M012MLL, so using its SP, and the fact that Q123ML has not yet been tested the first half of this year is expected to continue with volatility to the Q123MLU with closes expected in the oval shown, before we can expect prices to rapidly drop in the later part of 2014.
So there will be a large crowd of bulls forming again in Q2 as prices fail to make closes below Q123ML, but will make a new low on the weekly pivot scale and the below dashed green trend line is broken that the new bull market is underway! Do not panic as the majority MUST be wrong before the bottom is in - everyone you know must be bearish over gold first! To get bullish we need a new low below Q123, and a close above the first solid green line with a confirmation retest.