Gold Weekly – 16 December 2013 – updated 2014 Jan 13

Last week I suggested a possible retest of $1300 in

Action today suggests that prices are struggling to get through the resistance shown in the above post, and it looks like prior to the end of January gold should put in a new and by end of February should be testing $1100

PM Gold201312162 W

Update 8 January 2013

It is highly probable that gold is in wave d-5 of D-3 as shown below.

PM Gold20140108 W

If you look at M012ML bolded below you will see that prices have failed to close above the ML since mid November and if price this week fail to close above it then that will be the 4th failure which normally results in a strong opposite reaction, so this weeks close is critical for gold and we could see last Junes low being taken out and I would expect a spike below Q123ML for pivot D-3. Then as described in the monthly projections prices should meander between the 2 Q ML's until mid year, before dropping further.

PM Gold20140108 W D-3

A break out to the upside of the blue triangle will confirm last weeks low as D-3 and the ideal target for D-4 would be towards the end of January around 1270, but we need a close above the M012ML this week for that to happen, so this weeks close will clarify the near term movement for gold.


Last week gold managed to close above M012ML and on the Q012ML, managed to avoid its 4th failure and broke to the upside of the blue triangle as described above and this reduces the option of being in d-5 of D-3 as prices broke out of the blue triangle shown above.  This means we could sill be making an extreme wave d-4, which would be eliminated with a break above $1267.5. From a timing view d-4 should have been made last week so it is extremely likely that as described in the Jan 8 update that D-3 has been made and we are in D-4.

On that assumption ideal D-4 will be made this week from timing and price at $1293.90. There is however strong resistance at 1278, so a high there would make it highly probable D-4 is made. That late timing for D-4 would be before the end of next week around $1267.5!

PM Gold20140113 W

I have shown final alternate count on the lows above, where it is possible that the low was W-1, which would give a high next week ideally at $1344.40, however the heavy resistance makes this option unlikely!

So there is no clear indication of where gold is going, and until we get a price break outside those given the count will remain unclear for the next 2 weeks!

With all 3 options we should get further highs before prices break down to new lows.

This weeks close must be above Q012ML to keep the W-2 option viable. A close below will make it more likely that D-4 has been made!

This is the sort of problems you get at / near the intersections of longer term ML intersections as described in the monthly update!!!! Volatility increases (extreme price swings) which often result in extreme waves, making it difficult to confirm until a clear break is made!

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