Gold Big Picture 26 November 2012 – latest update 24 January 2013

Previously I assumed a rule break the spike low, and incorrectly scaled a pivot!! Also I have found yearly pivots 0, 1 and 2 which confirms that last Septmbers high is Q3.

The recent action has highlighted that the user is wrong - me, and this was not a rule break and the revised count is shown below base on the MAP Wave Analysis rules!

Essentially we need another high a minimum of 1795.84 and maximum 1802.92 before gold can continue forming a base for when confidence in the governments ability to deal with the sovereign debt crisis  reaches its tipping point (pivot) Q5 on Y3. The timing is pointing to as early as next year to as late as March 2015.

My previous user rule break assumption from last report.

I am changing yet again the report format so that you can see the wave formation on the wave scales that I use so starting with yearly pivots.

We clearly have not had a a bubble finish yet! You will also see the incorrectly scaled pivots which give the final target area of Q4.

On a monthly pivot scale.

You can see the final "bubble top" of wave 5 following the yearly ML test, retest break and support followed by the monthly MLU test, retest and support before breaking clear to the yearly MLU!

On a weekly pivot scale

Here you can again see the test, and retest of the Q123ML, which will be followed by the break and retest, all of which is typical price behaviour around these cycle forks!

Zooming in on the daily pivot scale

As I stated in the introduction, we need to complete M-4. The window is tight and to stay within MAP Wave Analysis rules this means a final high between 1795.84 and 1802.92, before the break of the M123ML can succeed. This is projected to occur in December, and once D3 is in then a better time frame can be given, and once D4 is in then it can be further refined. This is unlikely to be a spike, but a roll over top.

In the immediate future below is what MAP WAVE Analysis is projecting.

Due to a lack of understanding of the fact that support and resistance ARE NOT horizontal, but time related and depending on the fractal wave scale you are trading that there is NO MAGIC time and price target. This fundamental simplicity just does not exist! MAP WAVE Analysis gives clear validity criteria, as shown above on the 4H scale. These can be applied to what ever your trading pivot scale is.

Marc

UPDATE 28 November 2012

Things are moving incredibly fast! Volatility is going to get higher leading into the Fiscal Cliff as people position themselves for the worst case scenario as they perceive it, so on my 80:20 rule what are the options?

10% No result - economy tanks

80% Just delay promised cuts and tax increases - Look how Europe has managed to kick the can down the road for the last few years!!! QE infinity will keep assets rising for ever!!!!

10% Result - urrrrrmmmm how will that one be achieved with our self interest political system I cannot see!!!!

Now for you Americans who apparently are not allowed to make bets outside of the US see recent CFTC filing against an Irish betting shop, (possibly something to do with not declaring gains on your tax returns or maybe US companies not making the commissions - so much for free markets!!!! lets look at gold!

As MAP WAVE Analysis projected above we can see that gold has followed its script!

Not a bad projection - OK it tossed in a few sub waves but note how it has reverted to its bigger fractal wave cycle fork!! This is the sort of thing that assures me that the FED is not big enough to manipulate the market - millions of individuals, and the crap analysts that keep saying everything is rigged and that is why what they predicted has a different outcome! Urgh let me think about this one? The analyst must be right and the market is wrong???? Maybe they should go back to school with open minds to reeducate themselves to think - for a good description of public schools which is applicable to the whole Western system of socialistic protectionism - OOOPPPPSSS I MEAN FREE MARKET CAPITALISM - I really must be an extremist!!

Now back to gold! From the chart you can see there has been quiet a bit of action - we are at least at 4H-3, but I would have to go down a few more fractal wave scales to confirm! Where the pivots have bounced however at a quick glance this morning show that the drop is over and now we go test MAP Wave Analysis to the extreme - For the high it must meet the criteria stated in my above report -

we need another high a minimum of 1795.84 and maximum 1802.92 before gold can continue forming a base for when confidence in the governments ability to deal with the sovereign debt crisis  reaches its tipping point (pivot) Q5 on Y3. - Pretty tight rules but this is a rules based system!

Presently, If I am out a fractal scale it should pivot either around the central bold green ML or the upper bold blue MLU and make a new low. It will do this either way - the issue is if it makes a new low it will be along the bold blue MLL and above the bold purple MLL. If it does the confirmation that the low is in is the highest pivot between now and then and can occur anywhere in the area shown in purple below!

This is a huge range of price and time so down to 4H fractal scale

I think from this picture you can see how by zooming in fractal wave scales the turning points are fine tuned! My count is down a further 5 fractal scales, but wave formation below that may not be complete which is why I have changed the format to show where I expect pivots to fall, with validation criteria as I am not 24/7 and only do this in my spare time!!! and being a firm believer of acknowledging my mistakes - the errors I have had to date have been me - not the system, and learning from them! In the long term education is the best way to create progress and hopefully this will help people to begin to understand MAP WAVE Analysis!

So as Gold just made a new low by breaking the D invalid line this confirms that we are in H-3 as shown below and once that is in the final bottom can be narrowed further! A break above the blue 4H validation line confirms the bottom is in as shown below!

So here you can see how it works - within tight controlled decisions, and had I gone down a few fractal scales I would have known the bottom was in!!!!! Hence the reason if I am not here that followers can make their own decisions to control their emotions  - and more importantly risk to reward ratios. The down side of going long at this point is  $1718 so $15, and upside reward is 1800 or $70, hence approximately 6:1 which is pretty good!

Marc.

 UPDATE 4 DECEMBER

Today's break lead to a 4 hour session to see what the hell happened!

Obviously exited long and went short!

We appear to have had the retest I was expecting!!!!!

Found it

This corrects the count to


Found it Recount W-2 to M-4

And gives us the new long term channels shown below! (Red is Weekly Channel) and in accordance needs to make new lows before we will see new highs.

Good long term short - confirmation would be a break of W-1 retest failure or a tight stop at today's highs!

Found it Weekly channel Big picture

Marc

UPDATE 24 January 13

Been a while! Back from Christmas holidays followed bt 4 days back in the office and then 10 days in Scandinavia to see the Northern Lights with m wife for her ?0th birthday present! 3 spectacular shows of the Aurora and 2400km from the North Pole - As she says we are unlikely to do that again but was well worth it - solar activity cycles peak so best time to go!!!

Back to gold then!

Following script and we have daily pivot -3 and very likely D-4 as shown below. Ideal D-4 should have been in the purple circle, however on the Daily tick there is a valid count. Confirmation is a break below 4H2 of 1653 (bolded blue validation line).

130126D

Below on the 4H tick you can see the reason for an alternative count! The count shown above is in accordance with MAP Wave rules, but not my fork rules!  When this happens I accept the fork rule break if it gives a valid count one wave scale up -  i.e. on the D scale, but that will not be clear until we get either the break below 1653.1 shown below;

130126 4H D-4 inor the alternative count will mean one more high above 1697.8 shown below to complete D-4;

130126 4H D-4 likely

Either way I expect once it trades outside of the orange "no mans triangle" we will know which count is valid!

I just want to take you to the bigger picture so looking on a monthly scale you can see the projection;

130126 M

The ideal wave target will be revised once the above confirmation is received but looks like we will test mid to low 1400 by end of summer! What you can clearly see on this tick is how the orange up sloping ML was tested and bounced, then broken and bounced, and generally on the third attempt the break will come! A monthly close below this line is extremely bearish after this behavior!

Marc

One Response to Gold Big Picture 26 November 2012 – latest update 24 January 2013

  1. Pingback: How the DAX on 3 December at 11:24 confirmed a long term bull market. | MAPanalysis

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