Gold Monthly – Latest Update 31 Jan 2014 – Original 16 December 2013

Update 31 Jan 2014

PM Gold M 20140131

I have indicated an alternative count which is possible, but until we get a clear indication from the market we cannot discount it! On the smaller scale charts it is clear D-4 (preferred count) or D1 (alt count) was made with this months high. Until we break out of the triangle there is no way of confirming. Based on my preferred count we should get new lows in February around $1115. If this does not occur then the alternative count is most likely - so patience on the monthly scale. The reason for the preferred count is if gold fails to close this month above $1255, which is highly unlikely!

There is so much commentary that is bullish for gold and gold miners which means we have NOT seen the low in gold. Remember the majority MUST be wrong! So when everyone throws the towel in then we know the bottom is in or near!


Firstly, the big picture. I have assumed when US came off the gold standard in 1971 is the start of the current Yearly wave and hence we are in Q4, which is bearish, Based on alternation wave 2 was a long complex correction so this correction will be shorter and harder.

PM Gold20131216 M

The current ideal monthly projections are $900 mid 2014, for W-3.

Looking at Quarterly Wave 4 in more detail we can see the June low completed a cycle and could be an extreme W-1, or M-3.  Either way the august high is at least a weekly wave, but I have tntatively labelled them as M-3 and M-4, but that currently is largely irrelevant - Gold still has to make a a low on the Q123ML, around $1160 - This is the minimum correction, however it is obvious that the wave structure far from supports this option and should test it before the end of February. Then there is the potential for gold to hover between 1160 and 1300 until  no later than June to October 2014 before resuming its downtrend breaking $740 no later than May 2016 (Early November 2014), pausing there before completing its final leg down to $400 before June 2017 (Early September 2015).

PM Gold20131216 M June low

The price targets are minimums and the time targets maximums with early dates where shown.

UPDATE 4 Jan 2014

Gold failed to make its projected low prior to the New Year by $2, so there is a likely hood of W-1 being in. This is not yet clear from smaller wave scale counts. A breakout of the red triangle will confirm if we are in waves W-2 where a high over 1362 will be W-2, or wave d5 of D-3 which will be confirmed with a new low below 1179. This is further discussed on smaller wave scale projections.

PM Gold20140104 M weekly in or not

A close above MMF123 will favour W-1 already being made, however depending on a high it may only confirm D-3, so we need to wait!


One Response to Gold Monthly – Latest Update 31 Jan 2014 – Original 16 December 2013

  1. Marc says:

    We are still in the triangle shown in the 31 January update.
    Having made its high as the alternative count shown, I have changed the monthly count of the June to M-3 as prices moved from M012 MLU to MLL, and the alternative count makes that an extreme W-1.

    Bullish and Bearish confirmations have been added to the chart.

    May monthly closing support 1272 1263 1228 1167 1163 1130
    resistance 1327 1331 1340 1362 1396 1437 1453 1471

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