17th March - So is the top in???
We have a valid 5 wave count, the deci and daily constructive confirmations have been broken and the weekly's stand at 1198.34 and 1154.34 and from MAP Wave rules one last option that what is labelled D3 is actually D1..... which will be confirmed with a new high or a break of 1191.08. All this makes the top a very high probability W-4, putting us into the final weekly wave. We should know within the next few days of the d345MLU and D345MLU hold as resistance, and that we should see with at least 3 fractal pivots, d-2, c-2, and m-2 which will put us in a 3rd wave of a 3rd wave of a 3rd wave of a 1st wave of a 5th wave.
No Later than Dec 2018, No Lower than $814
No Earlier than May 2017, At Least lower than $920
The golden triangle is the projected bottom for Q4
The darkest purple area is the most likely area for pivot D1, with the ideal D1 being along the W234MLL (bold red solid) Oct 2016 $1075
Since February I have added analysis of Martin Armstrong Arrays which are password protected as access is only for his subscribers and attendees of the Princeton and Berlin World Economic Conferences.
FROM 12 February
On the 5th Feb I commented
Gold today broke out of its expected trading range!
This means that either the bottom is in, or the wave count is one fractal out.
If the bottom is in then this will only be confirmed with a break above 1307.59.
A high this month below 1222.05 with a close below 1197 will only suggest that W-2 is D-2, and the recent December low is W-3 and this months high is W-4
The later is my preferred option, but a confirmation is a break above 1307.59 or a break of the December low. This would fit in with the behaviour of people and be a false breakout to reassure the bulls and shake out the bears and by making new lows would put the majority on the wrong side, which would result in a panic bottom with a nice spike to confirm a major pivot!
Well today it broke that without pausing!
So where to next?
So as a minimum my preferred option is valid due to the break in MAP Wave counting rules. This means that the December low is as a minimum W-3, and we are in wave W-4 as shown below.
So what can we expect for the rest of this month which has been pretty dramatic so far and the year for that matter?
Starting on the yearly level:
You can see the monthly channel (dashed downsloping orange) and this correction is expected to make a normal correction within that channel to the Q012SPMLUtoQ3 (upsloping dashed golden line) and if an extreme correction to the Q012MLL (bottom solid golden line). Pivot M-3 was made on the ML of M0-1-2 and M-4 retraced 50% of the channel amplitude which is all as expected.
Further the December low was made on M0-3-4ML and M0-1-2MLU, which often gives a pivot, but usually one fractal scale smaller. This combined with the wave structure on a smaller fractal scale make it a low probability Q4 and if it was not for the overshoot on MFM-1-2-3 of Q3, the December low would be a highly probable Q4. One final wave feature that makes December's low a low probability Q4 is that prices opened below the potential Q234MLL, but as the Wave off the December low highlights this can result in a delayed sling shot move which can be seen on the hourly chart above.
With MAP Waves alone Q4 can only be confirmed with a break of 1392.08 (The Q interval overrules this to 1433.08 - see below).
The count that can be determined from this interval is shown UNLESS December's low is the bottom.
Yearly resistance starts at 1258.42, followed by 1355 so nothing out of the ordinary here.
Going into the quarterly interval:
Looking at the monthly forks described above we can see why the wave structure is not supported already on the Quarterly interval,
and in particular if we look at M-1-2-3 below;
we can see that M-4 retracement was not as expected.
Quarterly resistance stands at 1255.92 and 1308.29.
At this level we can see that confirmation is a break above 1433.08, and the confirmation on the yearly interval is 1392.08 is actually a sub wave! This is why it is important to monitor multiple intervals!!!!
So again on the quarterly interval there is nothing unusual here either. however there is clearly noise on this fractal scale that is not present in the yearly interval.
Moving down to the monthly level:
Here we can better see wave formation and how we have still not had retracement to the M-1-2-3ML, and can look closer at targets.
For the count shown so far to remain valid prices should ideally turn at 1255.92 next month or s spike this month of 1261 , the first resistance level on the monthly interval. If that fails then the count will change with the next resistance level which lies at 1300, with a spike high of 1308.29 which would change the count as shown below to the pivot numbers above the monthly MF channel.
The resistance levels thereafter rise to 1330, 1383 and 1403 for February.
If 1308.29 fails then it is possible the December low is Q4 and the new bull market is underway and we should have new ATH by end 2019! (The count shown above below the MF M channel).
So What a wonderful setup to keep the bulls and bears tugging at one another.
How will this play out?? Maximum effect to get extreme sentiment! This month we hopefully get confirmation, and to keep the suspense going we should see prices trading within the triangle shown below before a breakdown to a final low below December's low.
That should squeeze out the longs and shorts which is what is needed for a trend change. We are not quiet there yet! Purely from this behavioural view as there is no way of being able to tell which wave formation is correct below is the MOST LIKELY wave count and would mean that we had two minimum monthly waves with wave M-3W-3 being and extreme weekly wave! This is all within the expected extremes of wave superimposition!
So nothing out of the ordinary yet. To confirm December low we need a break above 1403.00 this month.