SPX WEEKLY – wave 5 – neutral – limited Upside to Test Weekly Breakout

Yet another format. Under each fractal I will discuss what is relevant at that level.

In the title I will give the wave count and current outlook.

Weekly Channels;

24/11 Prices have challenged the Weekly Bullish channel MLSPX Weekly bullish channel

This is the channel if we get a breakout and prices will work their way to the MLU, however prices must break the resistance at the ML. This is the most likely channel when adding M and D details.

With a break of the MLU the BEARISH CHANNEL IS NO LONGER VALID 24/11

SPX Weekly bearish channel

This is the bearish channel where a failure to breakout into the bullish channel will be confirmed by a break of the ML.

Current MAP forks are as follows;

W012

SPX W MF012

and its associated WL +-1 through 6 which show the orderly behaviour of markets.

SPX W W012 WL

and the M3 Target range based on WL's, where a break of WL-4 is warning and WL-5 is confirmation of M3. If prices break above WL-3 then the warning and confirmation move up 1 WL. 24/11 WL-3 was tested and Fridays close was above so expect this to be support as previously stated

SPX W W012 WL M3 Target

W123

24/11 Prices worked their way through the MLU, indication subwave formation

SPX W W123

Prices have hit at the MLU. There is still upside potential for D1, however only marginal and this will be discussed under the Daily fractal wave scale, but on the weekly this is possible as W4 overshot the ML and so we can expect an equal and opposite overreaction - just we don't know when. This is however most likely to occur at the end of this wave than in D1.

The SP of this fork gives us a further indication of the limits of M3 as shown below.

SPX W W123SPW4WLU

W234

24/11 Prices worked their way through W234MLU indicating subwave formation.

SPX W W234

Prices have yet to make the MLU, and this is possible if the d count is wrong, but the upside is hence limited should that be the case giving a 2070ish D1. This is the reason for the neutral outlook, low 30 point upside potential and 90 point downside.

24/11 MF^W234

Prices are yet to challenge this forks MLU and is the most likely turning point now as waves on smaller fractals are closing. Below we can upperside target 2080 to 2085 this week.

SPX W W234^MLU

I just want to show you what a gap is - simply an area where prices move rapidly between support and resistance. 24/11 If you compare the above and below you can see how gaps start to fill and new waves are formed!

SPX W D1 Gap

Resistance and support

SPX Wave Shape SR

Firstly support is any line below prices and resistance one above. In addition to the SR (support resistance) given in the weekly information above. The green and red SR lines are derived purely from weekly wave shape. If the first level hold then there is a possibility of another high at either resistance level. If the lower support is broken then D1 is in based only on weekly data.

D1 Trend Channel

24/11 The first channel is no longer valid due to a break of the MLL

SPX W D1 trend channelTo allow for the possibility of a further high to D1 prices must stay above the D1 channel MLL which means a gap up to 2050.

D trend channel

24/11 The current Bullish D Trend Channel

D1 Trend Channel Bullish

24/11 The below D trend channel is no longer valid.

SPX W D1 max

This is the current daily trend channel for daily pivots. It shows an intersection with the D1 channel of just under 2060. With a low at the first level of support this would make the high on the first level of resistance and then no later than next week D1 will be confirmed on the weekly interval.

24/11 And is replaced by the current bearish trend channel

D1 Trend Channel Bearish

D1 target.

24/11 Wave d5 has subdivided and we are in wave c5, which too has subdivided, and we are in wave m5. We need to wait for further subdivision, however the most likely target is shown below in the mid to high 2080's

SPX W W234^MLU

SPX W D2 target

24/11 Due to the subdivision of wave d5, and then agan of wave c5 we have had the sideways consolidation and higher prices than the original projection, where on the weekly interval we had a valid wave formation.

Low will be in before christmas in the mid 1950 as shown for both if current high holds - D2 lower and earlier) and if one more high - D2 following week and slightly higher!

9 Responses to SPX WEEKLY – wave 5 – neutral – limited Upside to Test Weekly Breakout

  1. Marc says:

    I said in the report that the wave structure was wrong and so possibility of a new high. Well now if you look at the structure it look correct and depending on the depth of this correction (a break of 2032.63 would confirm D1 .
    It looks likely though that there may be on more slightly higher high as there is still a gap to W234MLU around 2068.39. From yesterdays d5/D1/W5/M3 report it showed this and confirms one more high tomorrow testing 2070.(see deatails on that report)

  2. Marc says:

    Well those of you that asked for simple charts! Here is what I am following…. Lower highs, lower lows and a lot of resistance for prices to work through! Should drop in a few days!

  3. Bill C says:

    Sorry Marc, but first 2 charts are unclear how channels are drawn for bullish and bearish scenarios.
    Looks like these are 2 variations of drawing M012 fork?
    Don’t remember ever seeing this (i.e. thought there was only one way to draw it).
    Can’t see actual pivots used to anchor the forks since it’s off the chart.
    Do like basic concept of top down charts, high level channels first and work down to successive lower levels.
    Think I mentioned before having 3 tiers of charts that encompass the essential elements.
    Need to clearly show at least the monthly (M012 channel) and maybe even Quarterly (Q234 ML) on top level chart.
    Also like the W012 parallels in combination with W123 and W234 channels to get a sense of possible inflection points
    But hope there’s a way to better consolidate those on fewer charts.
    Interesting how W012 2nd parallel and W123 MLU seemed to converge as resistance point for recent D1 rally high.
    Would be nice if that data was available on chart ahead of time as the rally was unfolding.
    Realize there are a lot of possible lines, but need to always show the main channels and maybe highlight specific parallels that are next to be approached.
    Sort of like tentative wave labeling used on OEW, in this case a tentative resistance line. Not sure if that’s too much work =)
    You really have a nice system of what I would call dynamic trend lines for tracking support and resistance zones, which does present some challenges in depiction on a chart.
    I need to spend more time reviewing the lower level charts, not sure I fully understand those, will try to comment latter this week on that.
    Nice work on the boat and all the best to you!

    • Marc says:

      I was talking to Metish last night and will do a article on channels, they are the big picture. There are always 3 possible channels of previous trends 125 and 345 forks and then get modified yet again once pivot 1 is in and again with pivot 2.
      I am doing the same for monthly , and daily. hopefully a couple of days! about 3 hours each.
      Will add in M012 with ideal wave W5 target – realised that too late and got sidetracked.

      The reason for the many lines is that each one tells a story and will cause a change on smaller pivot scales so when investing you need to monitor down at least 2 levels and up 1 level – no way around it unless you happy with loosing 3% to 5% instead of 1%. Unfortunately I am a bit of a perfectionist!

      Once people are familiar with it automatically certain lines mean more than others and basically the clutter disappears as you know what to anticipate. Am working on fractal scale alerts but so much more critical stuff on at the moment.

      The reason for the convergence is simple – they all measuring related amplitude from different points.

      D2 target is shown on last chart – forgot to draw fork!

      With M and D I will follow similar format with suggestions incorporated where ever possible and hopefully eventually get to a nice simple understandable format. The problem is I am really interested from understanding view point of what is the market going to do even in the next day or two, because I can no longer day trade as I dont have a behind the desk job with decent internet access and need to change my investment strategy for longer term and accept the +-5% swings.

      Thanks again for your help. Hope you also getting something out of it!

    • Marc says:

      “Need to clearly show at least the monthly (M012 channel) and maybe even Quarterly (Q234 ML) on top level chart.”
      “Would be nice if that data was available on chart ahead of time as the rally was unfolding.”
      I have integrated weekly into monthly and once have done Q will have one wave scale either side of each wave scale report once I have caught up.

      “But hope there’s a way to better consolidate those on fewer charts.”
      For that people need to understand the terminology and derivation of the lines. Some are already talking the same language so I can talk through the chart relatively quickly, but that is only after about a month or 2 of skyping about the terminology and theory!

      “Sort of like tentative wave labeling used on OEW, in this case a tentative resistance line. Not sure if that’s too much work =)”
      Each line is derived from a wave fractal and generally the colour coding show you what you want. If you got a lot of purple lines converging that is a high probability D pivot etc. This is one oof the main reasons I went to colour coding everything. Humans have amazing pattern recognition abilities which form much of the platform of our learning! That is why computers will never take over! They process data and evaluate outcomes and establish probabilities to the outcomes based on data. The advantage though is if you have enough data the processing power will give you unemotional outputs, without bias or PRIDE!

  4. Mitesh says:

    Are the channel lines shown in the first couple of charts modified forks, SP or TL?
    Can we have the line types defined to correspond to the line type? For e.g.

    Forks as unbroken lines
    Modified forks as small dashed lines
    SP as large dashed lines
    TL as dashed line having alternate small and large dashes in the line

  5. Elizabeth says:

    Will now settle down with a cup of coffee amd try and digest all. You have been very busy and it is appreciated. Thank uoi.

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