S&P Big Picture 16Oct2012 – Updated 2012 11 17

In order to  reduce work load I will only update this series with daily or greater pivot scales. Then once a weekly pivot is made I will add that in and make this a sub-page  for comparison, error finding to learn from mistakes - which is where you will find the previous big picture!

NB Pivot targets are ideal waves. As waves fracture this will only be updated on the daily scale and bigger scales only once a pivot is made.

UPDATE 11 November 2012

I want to use this example to explain the different targets as I am being asked price time targets. Above we can see the expected ideal wave time and price targets based on the fractal wave structure on the 16th October. Below is what actually happened.

Pivot 4H-3 was  made just above the ideal point previously shown where I estimated pivot 4H-2 would be made. 4H-4 was then made piercing D012MLH and 4H012MLH. Then to make its 5th pivot, which is also the next pivot on the D fractal wave scale D-3 it prices worked their way back down to the D012MLL and infact turned on the D012 extreme SP. So all in all very much as projected by MAP Wave Analysis!

So where to from here? 

Above you can see I have shown 3 most likely locations for D-4, however the pivot can only be determined by following the fractal wave formation as it develops. Note that D012 is still the primary trend indicator and so looking at the projection it looks like we are going to have 5 tradeable 4H waves, with increasing volatility leading into a January / February bottom that will test Junes low to make W-1.

Common Sense - Looks like Obama will have a short post election bounce (D-4), followed by a lot of volatility with the budget deadline where the projections are showing a low (W-1), the result will be kicking the can down the road like the Europeans which will cause a retest of the recent highs (W-2), followed by new lows as reality starts to set in that the plan is not working - weekly wave 3 down!

In regards price time targets you will see that I do not use horizontal support - the reason is very simple - there is no predictive value of horizontal support as it is subjective to which pivots you use. Subjectively it depends on where people tend to place their stops, and so gives some predictive substantiation based on peoples behaviour. You can see clearly that using a rule based non emotional objective methodology it certainly looks like support around 1266 will hold based on MAP Wave Analysis, and psychologically I am sure it will hold as it will give relief to those that still believe we are in a bull market.

I also do not use Fibonacci ratios - again the reason is simply they are geometrically derived as are my wave forks so they give the same result except that with MAP analysis you get a simple clear picture as opposed to a series of possible turning points where you guess at which line it might turn.

SPX Upwave over for today! Blog 12 Nov 2012

Based on todays action H-3 is actually 10-1 as detailed below which will be confirmed with a break of Fridays low.


Expect D-1 on Lower 4 H MLL

This upwave is over!!

UPDATE 17 November 2012

As projected on the 12th blog update pasted above, H-3 has been made on the lower 4H0-1-2MLL.

One more H wave down (expected in the green triangle) after this correction is complete in the purple rectangle region around 1300 as early as the beginning of December, but should be in by the end of the year. Once pivot H-4 is in we should have a better idea as to when, but I suspect, like many other indices the fiscal cliff will be averted by kicking the can down the road European style to make D-2 when disillusionment will set in for wave D-3 to test the 2009 lows, most likely just above as the can gets kicked own the road again!

One Response to S&P Big Picture 16Oct2012 – Updated 2012 11 17

  1. Pingback: S&P Updated in standard format | MAPanalysis

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