S&P Big Picture 5May12

The S&P is within its daily 345 SP to D3 cycle fork .

It has broken below its 4H345 MLL  - next cycle line WL-1.

Prices are moving down the 4H123 ML but are not expected to make the MLL due to the support of the W345MLU, D12 cycle fork MLL, D345 WL-1, D345SP to D3.

NB - NORMAL CYCLE - H-1 shown above is on the intersection of 4H-1-2ML an MF12 MLL, so it may be 4H-3 and 4H-4 are in as shown below as currently prices are showing strong support at the 4H-2-3-4 ML.

This favours my opinion that  the support from the confluence of lines shown on the first chart will hold to complete D-4 within D WL-1, and it may even drag out until the end of June.

I have shown below the D-4 alternative wave extreme limits which show this correction may drag out until the middle of August. That would definitely provide congress motivation for QE3!

5 Responses to S&P Big Picture 5May12

  1. sisyphusstone says:

    No worries, Marc, you don’t need to apologies for being out on the Oggin enjoying life! Today there is very high volume in the ES M2 contract and SO FAR it’s a narrow range day suggesting the Big Money is absorbing any further selling – and it’s been steady all through the US session – in preparation for a sharp move up. A late day sell-off excepting, we may be putting a bottom in place. Face Book (FB) immediately tanked back from $45 to the IPO list of $38.10 by around 95M shares. I suspect that may well gap up on Monday as the BIg Money will want to off-load to the Masses via a decent rally – another argument for a bottom today and a final rally to come after all the media IPO hype in a last ditch attempt to get retail to buy back into the market.
    Gold took off like a scalded cat yesterday – money rotating? I suspect 1574 will hold as support keeping prices well above the pivot, and 1634-1643 should be a solid challenge for it, at least initially if it’s starting a sustained run up. The EURUSD is also strongly up today. If it holds and continues up then Big Money was likely buying into all the bad Euro/Greek news earlier this week. Big money will have made a nice profit off the recent declines into ‘Sell in May’, now they can go off for the summer and let the ‘outsiders’ melt the market back up into the autumn for another nice profit to close the books off for the year before Xmas. Wash, rinse, repeat, but just you keep buying and holding now!!!
    We’ll see on Monday when Mr Market may make a fool of me!
    Best
    David

    • mapportunity says:

      have started gold and silver Silver hit weekly ML and reverted. gold looking to continue move down to MLL on monthly chart I posted on http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34603.html
      Have been looking at it more for presentation – will most probably change format to monthly weekly and daily charts so that it is easier to wee which ML prices are moving to. Looks like this coming bottom will be on the Daily 345 ML’s so after this bounce one more low before newer highs than D3. Off to fix my friends boat now.

  2. mapportunity says:

    Thanks Dave – Sorry just back from sailing yesterday and today!
    I am meeting someone on Sunday to change the platform where pictures can be attached with comment which hopefully will make it easier.

    DAX, Russel and SPX all pierced through their EW D13 to 2 lower normal fork parallel,
    Looks like good 4H-3 in and pierce of lower parallels often gives a quick move up so gap Monday up very likely.

    Wifey calling so will update on Sunday.

  3. sisyphusstone says:

    ‘Evenin’ All!’

    Just a few quick thoughts for what they’re worth – though no pretty pic so it’ll have to be the thousand words instead!
    SPX closed on it’s lows today with the highest volume of the past 19 sessions and the third day of rising volume. This is likely Big Money starting to take profits/buy. [Ever wondered why accurate and timely volume can be hard to come by vs. the ‘delayed by a day’ and adjusted retrospectively figures (ever noticed that?) The reporting of big position trades can be – and is – delayed legally. All in the name of an making and maintaining an orderly market!]
    Price crossed the 1.625 extension of Wave 1 at 1310 and it is just off the lower channel boundary (27.10.2011 high to 2.4.2012 high with a parallel from the 25.11.2012 low) at about 1303. Also for a bit of heresy, ‘if’ the 27.10.2011 high at 1292.66 is in fact the high of Wave 1 and ‘if’ this decline is Wave 4, then, according to Elliott Wave Theory – last double underlined, just like Darwin’s! – prices should not trade into Wave 1, thus potentially a good place for a tight stop. The big caveat is that today closed approximately half way between the ML and it’s lower parallel and 80% of the time price should reach a ML parallel (current down-sloping ML from the 2.4.2012 high). However, the mid-point is often a reversal point and when price fails to meet the ML parallel it will typically reverse sharply. Being a Friday tomorrow we may see a narrow range day and if on light volume I wouldn’t be surprised to see a gap-up open on Monday and a sharp move up – a typical trick of the Big Money to wrong-foot Retail traders and leave them chasing price and getting in with poor entries.
    Finally, there is an open gap to fill at 1353.39 from the gap-down open on the 14.5.2012 and just above at 1357.38 is the low of Wave 1 (if it isn’t ‘A’) – again potential for a tight stop, but again the caveat: there are 3 more small gap-down opening gaps just above the last highs at 1426.6, 1447 and 1478.4 (NB: check your data for the gaps, or lack of, as no two feeds are the same). All rather tempting to my mind and this decline has the look of a sharp Wave C sell-off and it has been choppy all the way down, but in a tight channel. With a US Presidential election due in November I can see the Plunge Protection Team doing all they can to engineer a rally into the autumn, so my hunch leans with you, Marc, that we’ll see one more high yet. After all, October and November are popular months for the US equities to roll over in, but by then who’ll care as we’ll likely have a ‘Double Whammy of Obammy’ as a ‘fait accompli’ ! (Perhaps he’ll get a second Nobel Prize for rallying the S&P 1000 points in his first term, ‘though he may have to share it with ”Helicopter Ben’ aka. ‘CTRL+P’).
    As a parting observation for anyone who gives a nod to W.D. Gann’s ‘scientific’ methods, there’s a solar eclipse this w/end on the 20th.

    David

  4. mapportunity says:

    New format format! If you like let me know. Easy to change at this point before I do the rest!

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