MAP WAVE COUNT @ 30Apr2012 D4/W5/M5/Y1
(for an explanation of MAP Waves, a modified EW counting method see http://mapportunity.wordpress.com/analysis/map-waves-part-1-an-alternative-to-elliot-waves-weekly-and-daily-pivot-scales/ )
I am expecting a final top later this year to complete a valid MAP Wave count in the area shown of the gold circle. That would complete a valid MAP Wave count from the 1980's lows to make a yearly scale top.
The weekly chart below shows the MAP Wave detail off the October 2011 bottom.
A clear 5 wave pattern can be seen from D2 to D3 (purple pivots). The 10 April low is at least a 4H pivot, but also a possible alternate cycle D4. I am expecting a retest of the recent high at the dashed blue line labeled "Limit of 4H-2 or 4H1". A clear break of that high would confirm that last weeks low is D4. I also show the purple circle as the ideal wave D4 target as well as extreme wave D4 target. You can see todays high has pierced the MLU and so it is possible that this is the retest as 4H-2, however when we look into the daily scale below that it is more likely to be H3/4H-2. Either way it is expected that there will be a down move from here for a day or two.
If we look at more detail we can apply the same principles to provide trading parameters and targets for the hourly pivot scale.
So it looks highly probable that we shall start with a down turn and possibly make pivot H4 by the end of the week.