US LONG TERM – Indices Context – 1790 to 11Dec12

The DOW has the best long term data and so is the basis of my assumption that we are not yet at the peak of the 300ish year cycle which as my post on the DAX shows due to the fractal nature of waves is not possible, and hence the 2007 top is either pivot 1 or 3. This will not be confirmed for many years to come so is largely irrelevant to the next few years. Staring with the very big picture - thanks to Martin Armstrong. Armstrong DJIA since inception Original Looking in from 1920 DJIA long term projection And where MAP Wave Analysis puts us in context 1929Looking in more detail from 1985. In order to better see the wave formation the following have been scaled in the pivot scaling I use.  Yearly pivots shown above and below. Y Looking again from 1985 with Quaterly pivots Q Monthly pivot scale from 2007 top, Q3. On the right I have shown validity criteria to meet MAP Wave rules. For each wave scale the next valid pivot to be broken is labelled accordingly. M Weekly pivot scale from the October 2011 bottom. I have also shown the ideal Weekly wave channel with the bold fork. You can see that we have fallen below this channel and so on a weekly level the DJIA is oversold, and the ideal W3 is for June 2013 around 17452. W Daily pivot scale from this June's low. It is not possible yet to determine D3, however it is most likely to occur during February around 14500 as shown. D 4H Pivot scale from November low. 4H will ideally occur this week with the darker shaded area being most likely. 4H Looks like we will get a FOMC Bernanke high on the 12/12/12 around 13400! Bennie Update! 12/12/12 Well looks like the US government is struggling to find buyers for its bonds! The DOW is approaching its ideal wave target as projected in yesterdays update - looks like tomorrow would be a good time to take stock of longs as it has a nice wave formation so this is extremely likely to start its downtrend for fiscal cliff day and looks like new end of January highs to confirm US indices uptrend by many other indicators! 121212 4H1Marc PS - SPX, Russel and Nasdaq Comp have the same wave count and I will try post them over the week end - But look to top by the by Tuesday! They still have around  2% to go to reach their ideal wave targets!

4 Responses to US LONG TERM – Indices Context – 1790 to 11Dec12

  1. Bill C says:

    Thanks Michael! Just trying to make sense out of all this stuff, can be a daunting task.
    Do have some time to commit, one of the advantages of being retired =)

  2. mlurski says:

    You must eat drink and sleep this stuff, Bill 🙂 I imagine you dont have time to walk the dog with all this analysis – im serious, good stuff – i cant keep up with it all.

  3. Bill C says:

    Hi Marc.
    In my quest to get a top down framework for better understanding of MAP, will continue same line of questioning here as started in other threads. Think historical DOW chart 1 (from 1920) is a very good reference point for this.
    Will accept your explanation that Y2 (pre-1920 and off the chart) is not available data, so the Y234 fork (and its associated slope) shown in the figure is only a guess. That implies this long term channel cannot be relied on for tracking Y5 and therefor other trend line techniques or sub-wave channel forks would be used instead. Is that correct?
    I’m assuming internal wave counts have not changed since you developed this chart. This is important to get clarified, because this chart has a fundamental difference with long term SPX chart shown under Theory MAP Waves 7 – Pulling it Together Using Forks Basic. This DOW chart shows M1/M2 waves as 1976/1978 time frame, where the SPX chart shows M1/M2 as the 1987 crash. This is a big difference and needs to be clarified. For now, I assume DOW has the correct wave representation. One of these needs to be fixed as soon as possible.
    Also, this DOW chart highlights fundamental difference between MAP and OEW. There is a disconnect with OEW long term reversals and MAP pivots that result in different counts.
    MAP rules => 2007 top = SC3
    OEW rules => 2007 top = SC1
    Cycle 1 and 2 waves tracked exactly (1938 and 1942)
    During bull market from 1942 to 1976, MAP did not count one of the long term reversals and as a result, skipped an OEW subdivision. This effectively concluded MAP C3 earlier, which essentially lined up MAP SC1 with OEW C3.
    During the bull market from 1974 to 2007, OEW had only 9 long term reversals, yet MAP shows many more subdivisions on this top level chart. In the end, MAP SC2 lined up with OEW C4 and MAP SC3 lined up with OEW C5 (or SC1).
    This puts MAP further along in wave count, working now on SC5 vs. SC3 for OEW.
    Will have to keep OEW specifics out of this discussion, so if needed, we can drill down on those further under the OEW forum. Just trying to compare and contrast the two systems as stated in one of my goals.
    Once this chart is updated (if needed), think it’s an excellent reference for the long term yearly waves scale. Just need to decide how many levels below should be shown and be consistent. Seems like weekly or daily would be low enough. Would be nice if this chart is continually updated as the count evolves. If/when it gets too long, then may need to archive it and track from a later start date.
    General comment on all charts. Some are not very readable even when linking to it, and some don’t even have a link for better viewing. It’s really hard to follow along with this anomaly. Recommend going through all charts and making sure they all have high resolution view, otherwise you lose the reader.

  4. Pingback: FOMC Bernanke high this week? DOW updated | MAPanalysis

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