Markets

I am expanding the range of my analysis to set the context of where we are and where we are going. Cycle channels and pivot validation values can be seen on the charts.

I aim to update these pages to show my minimum monthly, weekly and daily pivot scale MAP Wave counts, 5 up and 5 down! The wave count shown is the last confirmed pivot once that level has met the criteria described in MAP Analysis Part 1 and Fractal Waves (coming soon) as follows:

1  >= 0 /2 <= 1 and >= 0 / 3 >= 1 / 4 >= 2 /5 >= 3 (the opposite for down waves) so you can instantly see what the trends are for different wave scales.

 

5 Responses to Markets

  1. sisyphusstone says:

    Hi Marc,

    Just thought I’d put some links together for the ‘Further Reading and Resources’ section if, after your perusal, you think any are sufficiently pertinent and worthy of posting. My methodology as it stands at present – always an on-going process of refinement! – is essentially this:

    1./ Wyckoff – where in the Wyckoff cycle are we? This can be at any degree; waves within waves etc.
    2./ Median Lines – where are we anticipating price to react with a potential C.O.T. (change of trend) – again this can be at any degree.
    3./ VSA – what are the volume and spread telling us as price approaches an anticipated COT level/point.
    4./ I also keep an eye on key ‘fibs’ (though I use Gann 1/8th ratios eg. 37.5 vs 38.2; 62.5 vs 61.8 etc.) also wave counts – I’m rubbish at them mostly! – and key trend lines and channels where they seem relevant. Ditto simple planetary price lines (easily done and can be very potent support/resistance at times. eg Pluto has been at 1359 +/- 0.5 all this year – as it’s very slow moving – draw in off-sets at +45 degrees (1404), -45 (1314) and -90 from 1284 on 01.10.2011 to 1289 on 22.05.2012) and have a look see)

    Caveat: if VSA is flagging a potential change in price behavior at any point I will pay attention.

    The following sites also have their merits in my mind as they contain information, that at times, is valuable and insightful.

    i./ http://www.marketmanipulation.com
    ii./ http://www.zerohedge.com
    iii./ The Slog : hat4uk.wordpress.com
    iv./ http://www.stratfor.com (you can sign-up for their free geopolitical analysis which is pretty respectable, if frustratingly light-weight at times, but then it’s free so….!)

    On a side-note:
    [coleman300.com – I find him a bit arrogant at times, but his writings should be compulsory companions to all History classes in our schools as an antidote to the prescribed view we are spoon-fed so we don’t ask pertinent questions like, ‘why are the Falkland Islands SO important when we don’t even allow the islanders a full British passport’? Hint: hydrocarbons!]

    Wyckoff
    http://www.weisonwyckoff
    ltg-trading.com (loads of charts and associated commentary in their open archives)
    Various documents on http://www.scribd.com
    I am relatively new to Wyckoff and so, as yet, I am far from competent with his methodology in ‘real-time’ situations, however, I found it intuitive almost immediately. I had been trying to figure out if you could measure momnetum by counting volume in waves – laborious – and then last week discovered that Weis has proprietary software that does exactly that! Add it to VSA and it looks to be a very powerful synergy. I’ve not tried Weis’ software as it would mean setting up a free 2 month Metatrader account/Weiswave combo and I can’t be doing with that at present. I use TradeGuider and the next update, due in September, will include the WeisWave so I may have to just be patient!

    Andrews’ Pitchforks/Median Lines – Morge
    http://www.medianline.com
    http://www.marketgeometry.com (Free resources section has links to webinars with IB that are worth watching)
    Patrick Mikula has also published some work on MLs that can be found on the web as .pdf files eg. The Best Trendline Methods of Alan Andrews. (He also does a lot of Gann material)

    VSA – Volume Spread Analysis – Tom Williams/Gavin Holmes
    http://www.tradeguider.com (and several sister sites)
    Loads of material here with regular webinars (free and also customer ones) and YouTube videos. There’s a gold one from back in August where Gaving went on record saying that gold was about to roll over. He’s also always game to trade live if there’s a set-up to take. Customer service is also excellent.

    Also:-

    Goodman Wave Count System
    goodmanworks.com
    This appears to be a little-known wave theory – for a reason??? – that simplifies wave propagation theory compared to Elliott Wave. I have found little information on it other than Archer’s limited material. It’s relative simplicity appead to me, but as yet, I’ve not studied it in any detail or tried applying it. That said there are certainly times when you can clearly see the waves propagating according to the theory – typically in hindsight! – and then like EWT it breaks down.

    Gann
    While not related to your methdology and the site, his methods could be complimentary if anyone is interested in his work.
    His methods fascinate me, but there’s an enormous amout of ‘mystique’ and BS out there from Gann sites so you have to pick over them carefully and be discerning. For anyone interested Patrick Mikula and Jeanne Long are good places to start. My impression is that Gann did a lot of day trading, but my feeling is that his work is better suited to swing trading until you are thoroughly proficient in his methods and that’s going to take a lot of time and study! I’ve only scratched the surface so far and typically forget more than I can remember! Most of his key teachings were veiled as he didn’t believe in handing out his knowledge on a plate. As such one of the keys when reading material such as, ‘The Tunnel Thru The Air’ is to realise that his ‘scientific’ methods refer to astrological methods. It is also important to realise that to him they were really ‘astronomical’ methods as he was only interested in the absolute and relative positions of the planets, not whether Mars was war-like or not!

    and just for fun:-

    Murrey Math Lines
    http://www.murreymath.com (Bonnie Hill also has some MML info on her site, as well as much more on Gann etc.)
    Here’s one that should probably go under the ‘off the wall’ heading, but…….! Murrey’s concepts fascinate me and his system is beautifully simple and potentially would lend itself to Wyckoff/VSA. However, trying to get clear, straightforward examples of the method at work in plain english is like looking for Rocking Horse Manure or Dodo eggs! If you persevere though you will be rewarded. I’ve not used his software, but now have a pretty good idea as to how to set the lines – which is key – but don’t trade the method as such – more of a hobby on the side when I want some ‘light relief’ as I’m fascinated! Sometimes genius is over-looked as it is, by nature, unconventional.

    OK, enough! I must away – to continue rolling my stone!

    Best,

    David

    PS. Just noticed your cycles references. Have you read ‘The Fourth Turning’ by Strauss and Howe? I’ve not read the book but several excerpts and interview scripts. If you’ve not encountered their work, you’ll find it interesting food for thought. http://www.fourthturning.com

  2. sisyphusstone says:

    Hi Javed,
    I trust Marc won’t mind me commenting as I suspect he is pretty overloaded with analysis at present.
    If you want to learn more about Andrews Pitchforks/Median Lines I would highly recommend starting with Tim Morge’s site (google: medianline + morge). He has a wealth of excellent material that will give you a good grounding into Marc’s ML methodology. I haven’t come across much anywhere else that Tim doesn’t cover somewhere in his material. As Marc points out though, it’s all about pivots, pivots, pivots – you have to find the appropriate ones that price is resonating to and that can be tricky at times! The biggest advantage of MLs that most people fail to recognise, is that they are one of the few leading indicators. We want an insight into where price will likely go, not an account of where it has been! ie. lagging indicators.
    Hope this helps.
    Regards,
    David

  3. curious201 says:

    Hi Marc
    Luckily I clicked on your MAP 5 article on market oracle website and boy was it an eye opener!
    I had just read 2 articles on the same site re: Babson and Andrews methods on finding market turning points and before I could get myself into a more carried-away delusionary state, bingo! I am reading your MAP 5 article. But to be honest the yester ones on MAP’s 1, and 2 I found complex, so never even read 3 or 4.
    Now on to the reality check scorecard. Is it possible for you to simplify things a bit more and then to go on to a subscriber page to benefit everyone who read this latest article from you to start utilising this method for real, tangible, verifiable, high accuracy gains?
    Secondly can this incorporate metals, metal stocks, and world stock markets or each component would have to wait and take its turn?
    Thirdly, in back testing what were the limitations and can the model adjust itself or would need a mechanical input to re-align? I say this because I feel no model no matter how robust can encompass all times, as behaviours change and are subjective too!

    Best regards,
    Javed

    • mapportunity says:

      Sorry Javed – not sure if I have replied!

      MAP part 1 & 2 on market oracle (here I have merged them – part 1) is to demonstrate how using a short and long SMA you can easily visually see the principle of waves within waves, and I have just counted how many times I get 5 waves – 80% (bigger pivot scales give better results).

      Part 3 on market oracle (part 2 here) The aim is for people to quickly identify where NOT to spend your money for analysis where I show much of the terminology that analysts use – of which at the moment head and shoulders is in vogue! but I have explained them in terms of wave counting – with practice you get to very quickly recognize where you are and so knowing that there is a 80% chance of 5 wave formation with extremely simple rules so that when you read analysts work or watch their videos you can extremely quickly filter out the jokers and see the wishy washy rubbish that go on instinct rather than analysis. Now don’t get me wrong but very few have good instincts!

      Part 5 on market oracle (part 3 here) is not only a dig at the crap analysis out there, but I highlight classic pitfalls of manipulation that you can easily avoid to save yourself a lot of money – I explained the pump and dump manipulation and Fridays FaceBook IPO was yet another classic – loads of hype, limit supply drive prices up, dump and gee wow down 25% the next day! Investors that fell for that con have lost some $4 billion but just look what Goldman Sachs made -http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=FB+Insider+Transactions. This is critical to understand what drives the cycles! IGNORANCE, GREED AND FEAR!

      In Part 4 here and market oracle I show how using pivot scales you can easily apply basic trend lines for targets – pretty basic EW trend line & analysis.

      In part 6 (here part 5) on market oracle I show how to use pitchforks for cycle analysis.

      To get the understanding work through the my euro example which is the basic concepts.
      You will start to see waves within waves!
      Once that is clear Part 5 basically has some more tricks of it all and shows the same basic principles used on multiple pivot scales.
      There is no simple short cut, it is about pattern recognition which takes time! For over 1 year I have watched waves on average 4 hours per day!

      By following the updates ASK what ever you like! Challenge what ever you like! The idea is that we all get over pride issues in the hope we get a better society by modifying our behaviour! Give it some time and patience.

      And David – feel free to but in – I m providing the platform – experience shows me as a group we can achieve a lot more than individuals!

      Marc

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